Every Counter-Strike: Global Offensive player dreams of opening a knife. But what are the actual odds of getting such a coveted cosmetic?
YouTube and Twitch star Anomaly may have found the answer. He conducted a 24-hour CSGO case unboxing stream in partnership with third-party trading site Skinbaron. Anomaly bought $10,000 worth of CSGO keys and unboxed 4,000 cases in just over 20 hours. That stream is one of the cleanest and most recent sample sizes for determining the odds of CSGO cases.
Out of 4,000 CSGO cases, Anomaly opened 12 knives, 33 reds, 113 pinks, and 624 purples. While 4,000 is not enough to determine the exact internal odds of CSGO cases, the experiment does paint a pretty clear picture. Knives were exceedingly rare, reds are less than 1%, and the jump from purple to pink is pretty substantial.
Higher-rarity skins combined were 782. That’s only 19.55 % of the total CSGO case unboxings. The rest were blue skins, which are the least valuable drop even with StatTrak. Common skins can sell for as little as 8¢ on the CSGO Marketplace. In four out of every five boxes, Anomaly spent a $2.49 key on a skin worth less than a dime. His StatTrak odds hovered near a 10% average, which is the generally agreed-upon rate by CSGO players.
The CSGO case ratios were created by real human developers so the actual rarities could just be round numbers near Anomaly’s pull rate. Restricted could be 15%, Classified 3%, and Covert could be either .66% or 1%. In traditional Valve fashion, it could be much more complex under the surface. While 4,000 is a massive sample size, it’s not enough to precisely determine the actual CSGO cases odds. Anomaly’s odds may not be your odds. CSGO also shows no signs of having a pity system like those implemented in gacha games.
An important factor to consider when it comes to unboxing knives is the actual model and finish. The cheapest knives sell for around $65 on the Steam Marketplace, while the most sought after are listed for over $1,800 or are traded outside of the marketplace. The price of extremely sought-after CSGO skins can stretch well into six figures.
Anomaly’s best CSGO case unboxing was a Stilleto Knife | Doppler with the elusive Ruby pattern. One similar knife Stiletto Ruby was listed on Skinbaron for 1,099€. Ruby is one of the rarest phases for the seven-skins-in-one Doppler pattern.
The intended beginning of the stream misfired when an OBS error caused Anomaly to reveal his face on stream for the first time. The stream was shut down before beginning again shortly.