While Complexity will enter the series with a brand new player in former 100 Thieves rifler Justin “jks” Savage, Vitality comes in after a crushing loss to Heroic at DreamHack Open Fall. While the markets have Vitality as heavy favorites, fan opinion is behind Complexity. This series will ultimately come down to teamwork, not just jks or Mathieu “ZywOo” Herbaut’s individual skills.
Both ZywOo and jks are consistently deadly players that have played with less-than-stellar supporting casts around them. That has changed for jks, who enters a Complexity lineup that was this fall’s surprise contender before the departure of Owen “oBo” Schlatter.
COL’s in-game leader Benjamin “blameF” Bremmer has defied stereotypes and stands as a difference-maker for the team. With jks now available to spread that power out across maps, opposing teams will have a much more difficult time gaining ground. Vitality, on the other hand, has Richard “shox” Papillion. The veteran CSGO player has been Vitality’s second-best behind ZywOo, but his performances over the last three months have only provided Vitality with an average of 70 damage per round. That won’t be good enough against jks’ average of 82.
As always, it’s a good idea to get a look at map statistics for each team, especially in this case. The teams prefer different maps, with Complexity deadly on Vertigo with a 71% win rate while Vitality learns more towards Dust 2, where it wins 77% of the time. But there’s a middle ground in Overpass, a map that both teams play often.
Vitality hasn’t lost on Overpass in the past three months, but Complexity is still a threat here with a 71% win rate. One of those losses came against forZe when COL had a stand-in for oBo, and the other two came early after the CSGO player break. In other words, there will be a game on Overpass tomorrow.
jks is an adaptive player, a strength that has made him one of the most reliable riflers in CSGO. That should help him integrate with Complexity, especially given the amount of time the team has had to prepare. jks officially signed with COL on October 23, but it’s likely that jks was in contact with the team prior to that. There shouldn’t be any growing pains in this international roster given his ability to slide in where he’s needed.
Vitality is either hot or cold, regardless of how well ZywOo is playing. shox and company always have the potential to make a breakout play or two, but Complexity is looking like the stronger team heading into this one.
The odds found on bookmakers available through WINNERS.net are saying otherwise. Team Vitality is currently favored 1.58 to Complexity’s 2.23 underdog odds. That’s a line punters should take a good look at, especially considering how streaky Vitality can be and how dependant it is on a good performance from ZywOo. Despite some red flags on paper, Complexity is in a very good position to win this series. There’s also some serious value in looking at over-unders on maps played, as there is a strong likelihood this series goes the distance due to the teams’ divergent map pools.
Complexity and Vitality are set to start the opening round of Group B’s upper bracket tomorrow, October 28, at 11:30 a.m. EST.