TSM vs Evil Geniuses NA DPC Regional Finals betting analysis

William Davis Published 14/02/2022

Evil Geniuses is a titan of North American Dota 2, but the newly-sponsored TSM Dota 2 roster could pull off an upset at the Regional Finals according to our betting analysis.

The cancelation of the Dota Pro Circuit Winter Major was a shame, but it also created a new opportunity to settle regional rivalries. One of North America’s most heated rivalries now has a chance at closure. Evil Geniuses took the regular season match 2-0, but TSM bounced back in tiebreakers with a stomp of its own to secure the second seed at the Regional Finals. The odds are very even, which means a potentially great payout for either pick. If you’re looking to start the NA DPC Regional Finals off strong, here’s our betting analysis for TSM and Evil Geniuses in the opening round. 

This best-of-three match will take place on February 18, at 5 p.m. CST. The winning team will go on to face the winner of Quincy Crew vs 4 Zoomers in the semifinals. For the best odds on all Dota 2 esports matches, always head to Winners.bet. All odds used in this article were accurate at the time of writing.

Evil Geniuses NA Regional Finals analysis

Despite what a 5-2 match record implies, the Winter season was trouble for Evil Geniuses. Two rough losses in the early weeks to Black ‘N’ Yellow and Wildcard left the team scrambling. To make matters worse, newly-signed offlaner Egor “Nightfall” Grigorenko voluntarily left the stack in early January, leaving Arif “MSS” Anwar to fill in. Despite the unexpected roster change, the squad barreled past its final matchups to secure a Regional Finals berth. As of the NA Regional Finals, EG has definitely found its mojo. According to our betting analysis, Evil Geniuses will need it to take on TSM.

• Artour “Arteezy” Babaev
• Abed “Abed” Yusop
• Arif “MSS” Anwar
• Andreas “Cr1t-” Nielsen
• Jesse “JerAx” Vainikka

Evil Geniuses is entirely built around its core duo of Arteezy and Abed. Canadian carry Arteezy averaged a phenomenal 669 GPM throughout the season with 100% win rates on Luna and Wraith King. While usually on basic picks, he’s one of the region’s few carries pushing illusion heroes. His signature Naga Siren and Anti-Mage loom over each draft phase.

As for Abed, he boasts the single lowest death average of any midlaner in the league. That stat contributes to the highest KDA of any mid at 8.56. His explosive play style can completely take over a game. If it doesn’t, Arteezy is always capable of picking up the slack. 

TSM Dota 2 NA Regional Finals analysis

After a surprise acquisition by TSM at the tail end of the regular season, the former Undying roster is now one of the biggest names in North American Dota 2. The roster formed during the online era for the sole purpose of making a dent in the Dota Pro Circuit. The streak lasted all the way to The International 10, where the team took home $600,300 from a 13th-place finish. While not as internationally experienced as EG, TSM has already shown the ability to stomp Evil Geniuses if things go as planned.

• Enzo “Timado” O’Connor
• Jonathan “Bryle” Santos De Guia
• Jonáš “SabeRLight-” Volek
• David “MoonMeander” Tan Boon Yang
• Kim “DuBu” Doo-young

Compared to Evil Geniuses, TSM has a more balanced spread of skill through its roster. While EG focuses on enabling Abed and Arteezy, Undying puts more faith in its offlaner and support duo. This is reflected by MoonMeander and DuBu’s combined GPM of 600 throughout the season. By comparison, EG’s duo works with just 555. 

Offlaner SabeRLight- is also known for riskier hero picks compared to the average North American initiator. Tidehunter and Mars form the core of his hero pool, but few other positions threes will draft Legion Commander, Night Stalker, and Tusk in the second phase. He and the support duo will be the ones to watch, though the cores aren’t slouching either.

TSM vs Evil Geniuses Dota 2 betting analysis

As with an esports betting opportunity, matchup history is extremely important. Since the DPC Regional Finals still take place on patch 7.30, it’s safe to look back on the Winter season for history. TSM vs Evil Geniuses was one of the most contentious matchups in the NA regular season. 

The initial matchup went 2-0 in Evil Geniuses’s favor, with EG mid laner Abed dominated with 28 kills across Queen of Pain and Storm Spirit. But the squads met again in a tiebreaker for second and third place. In this best-of-three, TSM fired back with its own 2-0 win spearheaded by SabeRLight-‘s signature offlane Death Prophet. The innovative strategy of maxing Crypt Swarm to shove waves with aggressive pulls took EG’s safe lane by surprise. 

Considering the two teams’ relatively even skill level and matchup history, our betting analysis says to play the odds on Evil Geniuses versus TSM at the NA DPC Regional Finals. While close to even on paper, EG gets a slight from oddsmakers edge thanks to its international experience. Add in the most recent match going to TSM, TSM starts to look like the smarter betting option. Winners.bet lists a 1.94 payout for TSM compared to EG’s 1.76. A repeated 2-0 score line for TSM further raises the stakes to 3.25.

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