Team Vitality vs. Misfits Gaming: 2022 LEC betting analysis

The fourth week of the 2022 LEC Spring Split kicks off with a battle between Misfits Gaming and new European super team Vitality.

In an important fight to stay within the top six in the league, Vitality will take on a Misfits team that has been impressive so far in the first three weeks of the split. Misfits is currently sitting at a 4-3 record, which is better than the current 3-4 record of a Vitality team that has been underperforming despite its strong roster. 

This will be a match where Vitality has to show up and take a win. Vitality had picked up some important wins after starting out the split 0-3 but fell short against Rogue to close out the third week. This means that the momentum for Vitality has been slowed, and Misfits can now try to take advantage of that. 

Doing so will still be hard, as Vitality is by all means a roster full of star players. With names like Luka “Perkz” Perkovic and Matyáš “Carzzy” Orság on the team, there’s always a player that can potentially take the carry role. The problem for Vitality has been their team play, which seems to be lacking. Having five star players on the same team can often be a challenge, and that is what Vitality is finding out right now.

On the side of Misfits, the individual level just isn’t the same. Instead, Misfits has shown the ability to play together as a team so far and that has paid off. With wins against MAD Lions, Excel, and others, Misfits has proven that it can take down strong teams. With that said, Vitality should still be the biggest test so far for Misfits.

In a battle where it’s team play versus individual skill, a lot can come down to how the draft goes. If Vitality plays toward comfort and meta picks instead of experimenting too much, then it will be hard for Misfits to match them in the laning phase. 

After that it will be up to Vitality to not get overly aggressive, because Misfits will be more than strong enough to punish that. Vitality will have to respect its opponent and play a controlled game without letting Misfits find opportunities to punish aggression. If Vitality succeeds in that, then a fourth win should be in the horizon. 

Team Vitality vs. Misfits Gaming rosters

Team Vitality roster: 

• Top – Barney “Alphari” Morris
• Jungle – Oskar “Selfmade” Boderek
• Mid – Luka “Perkz” Perkovic
• Bot – Matyáš “Carzzy” Orság
• Support – Labros “Labrov” Papoutsakis

Misfits Gaming roster: 

• Top – Shin “HiRit” Tae-min 
• Jungle – Lucjan “Shlatan” Ahmad
• Mid – Vincent “Vetheo” Berrié
• Bot – Matúš “Neon” Jakubčík
• Support – Mertai “Mersa” Sari

Vitality expected to beat out Misfits in LEC Spring week 4

As many would have expected, it’s Vitality who enter this match as the favorite. Even though the team is placed below Misfits in the standings, it will always be hard for bookmakers to give Vitality the underdog role when there is so much talent on the roster. This also makes for a lot of potential money to be gained by betting against Vitality.

This strategy has worked in four out of Vitality’s seven matches so far this season, but against Misfits it will be a risky bet. Especially since Vitality isn’t as big of a favorite as it probably would have been a few weeks ago. With these odds, it’s still worth going with the favorite Vitality and hoping that the star-packed roster finds a way to win again.

Betting on Vitality as the winner will give solid odds of 1.44 despite them being the big favorite. Misfits isn’t that far behind with an odds of 2.59, which just seems too low in this case. 

The match between Team Vitality and Misfits Gaming will be played on Friday, February 4.