mousesports vs BIG ESL Pro League group stage betting analysis

By Kenneth Williams


Aug 29, 2021

Reading time: 3 min

Group C is undoubtedly the group of death at ESL Pro League. Putting Natus Vincere, mousesports, BIG, and FaZe Clan all in the same group is just asking for tight action. And that’s something that betting fans can take advantage of.

Only three of these teams can advance to the $750,000 ESL Pro League Season 14 playoffs. The two middle-seeded teams, BIG and mouz, have the most to fight for. You can head over to Stake if you want the best odds on the exciting CSGO action.

ESL Pro League mousesports betting analysis

After a rough live performance at IEM Cologne, mousesports is probably delighted to be back in its online happy place. The Flashpoint Season 3 champion drew the roughest group of ESL Pro League. mousesports lost 1-2 against FaZe and 0-2 to Na’Vi, but you can’t count the pan-Europeans out just yet. This is their last chance to earn a spot in the playoffs. mouz could become even more vicious now that it’s backed into a corner.

The mousesports name is synonymous with Robin “ropz” Kool. The Estonian lurker has picked up a sky-high .79 kills per round over the past few tournaments. When all ten players are alive, keep a close eye on David “frozen” Čerňanský’s positioning. The Slovakian entry fragger has an opening kill rate of 1.05 over the past three months. If both players are on top of their game, a $50 bet on mousesports 2-0 over BIG would win $145.

ESL Pro League BIG betting analysis

BIG is a very interesting spot heading into ESL Pro League. The squad just lost one of its more renowned players in İsmailсan “XANTARES” Dörtkardeş. The German side brought in Danish rifler Nicklas “gade” Gade from HYENAS as a replacement. That roster swap is reflected in Stake’s 2.25 odds for BIG to beat mouz. While the loss of XANTARES does put BIG down a peg, such high odds seem to ignore the sheer talent of the four remaining players. He was arguably the third-best player on the old roster.

Captain Johannes “tabseN” Wodarz doesn’t use his strategic mind as an excuse to frag low. He’s racked up 83.8 damage with .70 kills per round over the last three months. BIG’s top fragger Florian “syrsoN” Rische is a beast with the AWP, which explains his low .60 deaths per round. BIG is one of the best teams in the world with an economic advantage. It’s just a matter of establishing that economic lead in the first place.

BIG vs mousesports betting analysis

Recent bouts between BIG and mousesports have been fairly even. mouz won 2-0 at both IEM Summer and at Flashpoint Season 3, but their most recent match at Gamers Without Borders ended in the BIG’s favor 2-1. There’s an argument to be made that a charity tournament like GWB is worth slightly less from a bettor’s perspective, but BIG’s addition of gade may play an important role in this outcome.

Going purely off of statistics, mousesports is the most likely winner. A 2-0 victory is definitely on the table, since most of BIG’s specialty maps are comfortable picks for mouz. Expect mousesports to ban Vertigo and BIG to ban either Inferno or Mirage. Dust 2, Nuke, and Overpass is the most likely map procession for this series. Unless a surprise Ancient pick comes into play, the likely score lines are either 2-0 for mousesports or 2-1 for BIG. 

A $20 bet on those lines will earn either $58 or $82 respectively. You can get the highest payouts on all ESL Pro League Season 14 matches at Stake.


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