MAD Lions vs. G2 Esports: 2020 LEC Summer Split betting analysis

William Davis Published 18/07/2020

G2 Esports will look to bounce back against MAD Lions in the closing match of week five of the 2020 LEC Summer Split.

Things are looking rough for G2 this split. The team that was accustomed to smashing the competition is now struggling to defeat the lower tier teams in Europe. MAD continues its uphill climb and is fighting against Rogue for sole possession of the first place. The tables have turned in the LEC, and for the first time since 2018, G2 is not the favorite.

The rise and fall of G2

Top lane, Martin “Wunder” Hansen
Jungle, Marcin “Jankos” Jankowski
Mid lane, Rasmus “Caps” Winther
ADC, Luka “Perkz” Perković
Support, Mihael “Mikyx” Mehle

G2 started the season strong and it looked like it’d be another split of total domination. Five weeks into the split, G2 has reason worry. The team cannot pull the same tricks that earned it titles in the past. The cheesy picks and aggressive style are no longer paying off. In previous seasons, G2 players knew that whatever they did, they could get away with it because they were the better players. In the summer, the names on everyone’s mouths are the players from MAD and Rogue.

It feels like the rest of the teams in the LEC have finally caught up with G2 and can see through the smoke and mirrors. The defeat to Origen on Friday was unexpected. OG is a team that plays slow and safe, the exact opposite of G2. OG managed to suffocate G2 and forced them to retreat until all five players were either dead or standing in the fountain watching their nexus die.

G2 is underperforming and on the drafting side, the team is also having some issues. G2 must go back to basics and stop trying to pull off the grand spectacles that everyone expects from them.

MAD Lions goes from zero to hero in LEC

Top lane, Andrei “Orome” Popa
Jungle, Zhiqiang “Shad0w” Zhao
Mid lane, Marek “Humanoid” Brázda
ADC, Matyáš “Carzzy” Orság
Support, Norman “Kaiser” Kaiser

It’s hard to believe that this is only MAD’s second split in the LEC. After Splyce’s rebranding, people didn’t know what to expect from MAD. The roster included familiar faces, but also some new names coming from the amateur circuit. No one gave MAD too much credit, because what could a newer team like this do against giants like Fnatic and G2? As it turns out, a lot. In the summer, MAD is proving that it’s not a one-hit wonder and has climbed all the way to first place. MAD won’t give away its spot anytime soon, as it has three wins over the teams tied in third.

In the match against Excel Esports, MAD looked like the quintessential LEC team. The early game was shaky, but once players were out of the laning phase, all hell broke loose. MAD can play the side lines, can execute in the team fights, and the team knows both when to disengage and when to go all in. Players have even mastered the art of being big memes without reaching cringe levels.

why @Carzzylol @Humanoidlol pic.twitter.com/QAwDG0ZfU4
— LEC (@LEC) July 17, 2020

All in all, MAD is having a great split, only its second split in the LEC. With G2 wounded, Fnatic looking questionable, and OG playing slower than ever, there’s a good chance for MAD and Rogue to take over in Europe. If either of these teams snatches the summer split title, they could be positioned as contenders at the World Championship.

G2 favored to defeat MAD, but not by much

The matches on Friday switched up the odds, putting G2 and MAD closer than anyone anticipated. The first time these teams clashed, odds were 1.50 for G2 and 2.40 for MAD. In the rematch, G2 is at 1.80 versus MAD’s 1.90. The gap between these teams is closing, and the odds are reflecting it.

This match could be decided in the drafting phase. If MAD gets the edge in the draft and executes it to perfection without conceding too much, it might just get that key victory over G2.

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William Davis

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