ESL Road to Rio: Team Liquid vs MIBR betting analysis

By Nick Johnson


Apr 25, 2020

Reading time: 3 min

Let’s not mince words. If MIBR shows up to their Road to Rio matchup against Team Liquid the same way they’ve shown up against any team in their previous series in the event, they’ll lose. At this level of competition, MIBR cannot reliably compete. Instead, let’s take a look at Team Liquid and what the Americans can do against the battered MIBR.

NAF is the foundation of Team Liquid’s successes

Under coach Eric “Adren” Hoag, Team Liquid has grown from being a team with great potential to a team that is so on point most of the time that they’re an absolute nightmare to play against. They currently hold an 50%+ win percentage on five out of the seven maps included in competitive play, and there are only a few teams on the planet that Liquid consistantly struggle with. MIBR is not one of those teams. Head to head, Liquid is 25-12 all-time and its current roster hasn’t dropped even a single map to the Brazillian squad since May 2019.

There’s praise to be thrown on everyone on this team, but look no further than Keith “NAF” Markovic as one of the most underrated jack-of-all-trades players currently active in Counter-Strike: Global Offensive. NAF is a standout player overshadowed by the flashier names on Liquid like Jake “Stewie2k” Yip and Jonathan “EliGE” Jablonowski. As much of an x-factor those two are, Liquid’s overall performance is often dictated by how well NAF is playing.

Take for example Liquid’s 2-0 loss to G2 Esports at IEM Katowice ealier this year. NAF bottomed out the scoreboard with a -20 kill to death ratio with only 52 ADR. Compare to Liquid’s ESL Pro League Season 11 Finals performance against Evil Geniuses. Team Liquid won that match 2-0 as NAF topped the scoreboard this time with a +24 K/D and 106.5 ADR. That’s just the way it goes for Liquid, as when NAF suceeds, so does the rest of the team.

He’s not as flashy as Stewie or Russell “Twistz” Van Dulken, and not a consistant as EliGE, but NAF has become the heart and soul the this Team Liquid. Having former teammate Adren in the coaching booth, and for this match allowed in ear per ESL and Valve rules, Team Liquid should have little problem rumbling over MIBR here.

No one should let Liquid’s Nuke loss against Bad News Bears earlier in Road to Rio fool them. When TL has a chance to put in practice on a map they’ll need in the future, they’ll do it.

Team Liquid’s Best Maps

  • Overpass: 3-1, 75%
  • Vertigo: 5-2, 71.4%
  • Inferno: 3-2, 60%

MIBR has few opportunities against Liquid

We’ve said this about Made in Brazil several times over the course of ESL Pro League Season 11, Flashpoint 1, and now the Road to Rio. They aren’t a good team, and until in-game leader Gabriel “FalleN” Toldeo steps aside, they may not have the chance to be.

We won’t rehash all the reasons why. Long story short, FalleN’s reluctance to effect change inside his team has driven talented players and coaches to other teams, and MIBR looks lost as a result. All anyone needs to know about MIBR right now is that they barely won against YEAH, with a solid 16-5 win on Dust 2 before an overly tight 22-18 overtime game against a team ranked 58th in the world. MIBR lost 5 cluches against YEAH, opportunities Liquid won’t even give them to begin with.

MIBR’s Best Maps

  • Overpass: 4-2, 66.7%
  • Mirage: 5-3, 62.5%
  • Train: 5-4 55.6%

Like all matches where the odds are right where they’re supposed to be, there’s little to be had in indulging in the MIBR’s 3.30 line from, but the site does have many more opportunities in the deeper markets. Our niche market would be pistol round winners. At an average of Team Liquid at 1.69 to MIBR’s 2.04, thats a much more attractive line, especially after looking at each team’s pistol round statistics. Currently, Team Liquid is winning 56.5% of their pistol rounds in 2020. MIBR, however, wins the pistol round a dismal 41.7% of the time.

While this year’s only Counter-Strike Major, ESL One Rio, might be in Brazil, hometeam MIBR won’t be making an appearance at this rate.

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