The Dota Pro Circuit winter leagues are halfway done at this point, and that’s putting teams into do-or-die positions. While Europe has more major slots to work than almost any other region, the intense competition is still making those slots a precious commodity.
While Team Secret basically has the first-place spot on lock, almost every other team has a shot at a spot in the major and a chance of being relegated into the lower division. Two of those hopefuls are Alliance and Tundra Esports. Though both teams are technically ranked in the top four at the moment, neither one is in a position where it can easily absorb a loss.
Alliance was a very good team throughout 2020, but struggled to consistently post strong placements when competing against the best competition. The organization found itself regularly facing Team Secret, Team Liquid, OG, and Team Nigma throughout the year and while capable of taking wins off of each, couldn’t make its way to any first-place finishes.
That’s been the story of Alliance so far in the DreamLeague DPC league. The team is currently 2-1, with those wins coming off High Coast Esports and OG, and the loss coming from Team Nigma. Alliance is competing with the same roster it did through most of 2020:
Though Tundra Esports is no easy out, it stands as the softest matchup for Alliance for the remainder of the season. This game will likely serve as a barometer for the team’s chances of making it to the major.
The fast rise of mudgolems was a cautionary tale for esports organizations when it comes to Dota 2. The team formed by a duo of players kicked by Alliance exploded out of the gate by placing third in ESL One Germany and looked ready to take over the European scene. They were courting large esports organizations to sponsor them and then started booting players less than a month later.
The team remained largely intact and managed to work its way into the DreamLeague Season 14 upper division with the following lineup:
The team is 2-2 at this point, beating Team Liquid and High Coast Esports while losing to OG and Team Secret. Beating Alliance might be a do-or-die situation for the team as it faces stiff competition moving forward.
There is a bit of a disparity between the odds on this match and the probability of victory. Winners.bet has Alliance winning at 1.51 odds to 2.39 for Tundra Esports. That line suggests a 66.2% chance of winning for Alliance compared to WIN.gg’s prediction algorithm, which has Alliance’s chances of winning at 57%.
That shows that there is some value in a bet on Tundra Esports, but it’s up to the bettor whether they’re willing to take on that risk. While there’s a decent gap between the implied odds of victory and WIN.gg’s odds, Alliance is still the favorite by all measures, but Tundra has a stronger chance than the lines would suggest.