FaZe Clan versus Mousesports: ESL Road to Rio Betting Analysis
Nick J. April 30, 2020
Only a year ago, this would have been an easy game to call. Mousesports would have been coming off an April where they started off as the 45th best team in the world. Finn "Karrigan" Andersen had just joined, and a showdown between FaZe and mouz would've been an easy slaughter for FaZe. Today, however, is a much different story.
Mousesports has turned into a contender and a dangerous team regardless of the tournament or matchup. FaZe now barely holds onto a spot in the top ten. This year, it's mouz that's in the driver's seat.
Lines say FaZe over mousports, but mouz is FaZe's kryptonite
With mousesports coming off a string of rough results with losses against North, Movistar Riders and a best of five ESL Pro League finals against Fnatic, it's hard to take solace in the fact that mouz defeated c0ntact gaming in a sketchy 2-1. Against everyone but Fnatic, mouz has looked thin in the stratbook and disorganized on the server. Despite finishing 2019 and entering 2020 on an impressive run, mouz has come back down to Earth, particularly in-game leader Finn "karrigan" Andersen.
His performances against North and MoviestaRiders was a major factor in each of those losses. A player can't go -20 and expect to win, even if they do have star Robin "ropz" Kool in the server.
Another weak spot has reared its head in Chris "chrisJ" de Jong, who joined his in-game leader towards the bottom of the scoreboard. Veteran leadership is important, especially on a team whose other talents are so young. That said, when that veteran presence is instrumental in a match loss, it can be tough.
We're not advocating for a roster change just yet. We've seen the types of players that both chrisj and karrigan can be when they fire on all cylinders. It's only a matter of getting them to put the key in the ignition.
Mousesports Best Maps
Dust 2: 12-2, 85.7% win rate
Train: 8-4, 66.7% win rare
Nuke: 7-5, 58.3% win rate
FaZe's rocky history against mouz is bettor's gift
At this point in an international superstar roster's time together, fans expect a trophy. And despite having some of the most famously explosive players in the history of Counter-Strike: Global Offensive donning the FaZe jersey, fans haven't witnessed star performances from Marcelo "coldzera" David or Nikola "NiKo" Kovač in ages. This team was hand picked to bring home championships for FaZe, but so far it has only handed them out.
FaZe hasn't much improved. While the team fluctuates in placements from event to event, fans haven't see FaZe dismantle a team like their lineup suggests they can. FaZe is a team that literally defeats teams lower than them before losing to teams ranked higher than they are. A roster that was supposed to be explosive is now seen as predictable.
That's disappointing for fans, but good for those willing to look for lucrative lines in between the usual fare, where Winners.bet has FaZe slightly favored against mouz at 1.78 to 1.92. In and odd twist, newcomer Helvijs "broky" Saukants has been the most consistant performer out of the FaZe linups. Outside of his impact, the rest of FaZe has taken their turn at the bottom of the scoreboard, a place most never thought they would see these players.
If FaZe can avoid the trap of having one of its important cornerstones fall behind early, the matchup is fairly even. The moment fans see a missed flick or a corner unchecked, get out.
FaZe Clan's Best Maps:
Mirage: 10-1. 90.9%
In a stat for the ages. FaZe wins the round on Mirage 80.2% of the time after getting the first kill
Inferno: 7-3, 70% win rate
Nuke: 7-4, 63.6%
Taking the over on total maps is statistically friendly
The real issue for FaZe is that, despite the lines, mouz has absolutely owned them in six out of eight meetings in the past six months. Mousesports' record only improves when the rest of 2019 is included. The problem for FaZe is twofold. First, they lack a clear, dedicated in-game leader. When Karrigan led FaZe, he brought the same tactical depth he brings to mousports but with one important difference, as his players on Mousesports actually listen to him.
Secondly, FaZe's Vertigo permaban isn't negotiable. The team doesn't play it, period. Mousesports, on the other hand, hasn't played Overpass but for a single loss to Fnatic in EPL Season 11. Karrigan might still have studied that map more than any other during his tenure with TSM. He's well-known in Overpass circles, and he might just have something tricky up his sleeve for FaZe.
As for the market, a solid choice would be taking the over 2.5 line at 1.86. Regardless of who wins, the map differences between the two teams means that both will get one of their favorites, and the previous two best-of-three matchups have gone to the final game.
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