MAD Lions vs. paiN Gaming: MSI 2021 betting analysis

William Davis Published 07/05/2021

An exciting match in Group B at the 2021 Mid-Season Invitational is right around the corner as MAD Lions take on paiN Gaming.

Both teams got off to a great start on the first day of MSI, with MAD Lions humiliating PSG Talon. paiN Gaming had a tougher time against Istanbul Wildcats, but ended up taking home a nice victory after a comeback. When the two clash on the third day of the event, it might be a battle for first place between what looks like the two hottest teams in the group.

The matchup itself will likely be with a lot of focus towards the top side of the map. During MAD Lions’ win against PSG Talon, top laner İrfan “Armut” Tükek was dominating on Lee Sin. He and jungler Javier “Elyoya” Batalla didn’t give PSG Talon an easy time, already showing the top side can be a scary asset for the LEC representatives.

For paiN Gaming, it was also the top lane that enabled them to make a comeback against Istanbul Wildcats. With Leonardo “Robo” Souza placed on Darius, he slaughtered the opposition in late-game team fights and ended up carrying his teammates with a 10/6/8 scoreline. paiN Gaming’s early game wasn’t as explosive as what MAD Lions was able to showcase, but the team definitely looks like a threat in the late game.

Looking at the first matches, the playstyle of the two teams is very different. MAD Lions is looking to put a lot of emphasis on the early game and snowball a lead from there. paiN Gaming had a much weaker early game and has to look out for being punished. The Brazilian squad got away with it against Istanbul Wildcats, but falling behind early should be punished much harder by MAD Lions.

Overall, it looks like MAD Lions has a better grasp on the meta and is more capable of executing the early game. That seems to be crucial to succeed at MSI, so paiN Gaming is looking at a tough match.

The overall individual level on MAD Lions also seems to be on point, while the bot lane of paiN Gaming might need more time to find a foothold at the tournament. Against Istanbul Wildcats, the bot lane of paiN Gaming died a total of 12 times, and that can’t happen against MAD Lions’ Matyáš “Carzzy” Orság and Norman “Kaiser” Kaiser.

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MAD Lions vs. paiN Gaming rosters

MAD Lions roster:

Top – İrfan “Armut” Tükek
Jungle – Javier “Elyoya” Batalla
Mid – Marek “Humanoid” Brázda
Bot – Matyáš “Carzzy” Orság
Support – Norman “Kaiser” Kaiser

paiN Gaming roster:

Top – Leonardo “Robo” Souza
Jungle – Marcos “Cariok” Junior
Mid – Thiago “tinowns” Sartori
Bot – Felipe “brTT” Gonçalves
Support – Han “Luci” Chang-hoon

MAD Lions expected to take down brTT and paiN Gaming

On paper, the matchup is clearly favored towards MAD Lions and the odds show that. While paiN Gaming has already shown stellar play in the late game and an ability to come back from a deficit, it’s very likely that MAD Lions will punish them too hard in the early game. If paiN Gaming can keep up in the early game, there might be a chance for an upset, but it’s with a low chance. MAD Lions seem to be on point and got a good understanding of the meta, so the obvious choice here will be to pick MAD Lions.

A bet on the defending LEC champions will give a fairly low odds of 1.31 while paiN Gaming has a much higher odds of 3.15. The odds for MAD Lions might be low on its own, but combined with other matches it can have some value.