How Successful Will GTA 6 Be On Its Opening Day?

Khizar Mundia Published 14/10/2026

GTA 6 may be the most awaited game of all time, with hype at its absolute peak ahead of its scheduled November 19 release — but can the Rockstar title break the record for the highest-grossing video game in 24 hours?

Rockstar Games has delayed GTA 6 multiple times, with the previous postponement being due to the developer thinking the highly anticipated title needs more polish. A November 2026 release date has since been confirmed, and tens of screenshots have been released to only grow anticipation.

The reaction has been almost unanimously positive, with many agreeing that Rockstar was able to polish the game, as it looks better compared to when the developer announced the delay. Despite all this, following a reported budget of hundreds of millions of dollars, a strong performance will be needed from day one. But can the latest Grand Theft Auto title smash the record to become the highest-grossing title in 24 hours?

GTA 6 must defeat GTA V’s launch-day record

Ironically, Rockstar’s upcoming and massively hyped GTA 6 won’t be going against another popular game; instead, competing with the GTA franchise’s previous installment. GTA V was released in September 2013, but still holds the record of earning $815.7 million in the first 24 hours of the game’s launch. GTA V sold 11.21 million copies of the game during this time, securing a Guinness World Record. These stats may seem impressive, but GTA V didn’t stop there, as the game reached $1 billion in sales within three days of its launch.

Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick has described the game’s preorders as “unprecedented”. However, the company hasn’t shared any numbers to corroborate Zelnick’s claims. The CEO also stated that preorder totals can be misleading, as customers can cancel their orders. Despite this, fans are optimistic about GTA 6 setting new records largely because of how much hype surrounds the game and the sheer number of players waiting to play it.

GTA V has reportedly sold 230 million copies over its lifetime, which indicates that the GTA franchise’s popularity has continued to soar. This increases the probability of GTA 6 becoming a massive commercial success, which is also supported by traders at the prediction market Kalshi, who have been buying contracts on whether GTA 6 will indeed beat this record.

Kalshi traders expect GTA 6 to smash the previous record

The prediction market is straightforward, as there are only two contracts that traders can purchase. Yes costs 91 cents and pays $1 if the market resolves Yes. This is a 9-cent gross profit before fees are deducted. No costs 14 cents and pays $1 based on the outcome. This is an 86-cent gross profit without fees being deducted.

Image credit: Kalshi

This massive contrast is because traders are backing the yes contract, with Kalshi displaying that there is 89% implied probability of the market resolving Yes. Kalshi traders may be favoring GTA 6 becoming the highest-grossing video game in 24 hours, but this doesn’t confirm anything. Prediction markets work based on what traders believe will happen, but the outcome here will be determined by whether GTA 6 meets the resolution criteria.

If you sign up for this Kalshi market then use our promo code WINGGPREMAR for a trading bonus.

☑️ My analysis: GTA 6 has a strong chance of beating GTA V

GTA V’s lifetime sales have already highlighted how strong the franchise’s fanbase is. This fanbase already indicates a massive amount of sales during the first 24 hours of GTA 6’s launch, without accounting for new players. Even if every single fan doesn’t buy the game, a fraction could still help break GTA V’s record.

Another point to consider is that the Kalshi prediction market is for the gross sales, and GTA 6’s Standard Edition is priced at $79.99 in the US. This means if the game sells approximately 10.2 million copies of just the Standard Edition, this would be the same as GTA V’s $815.7 million record. This is an estimate, as there are other variables involved, such as taxes, discounts, the Ultimate Edition, and more.

Indeed, GTA 6 smashing the record isn’t guaranteed even with such a massive fanbase. However, I believe years of waiting and a substantial number of people expecting GTA 6 to be the greatest game of all-time can help it set the record for the highest-grossing video game in 24 hours.

Feature image credit: Rockstar Games

Khizar Mundia

About Khizar Mundia

Khizar Mundia has been playing video games for as long as he can recall. Things have come a long way since the many days he spent playing the original NES, though. He now covers a variety of competitive games and esports, as well as the world of streaming, ranging from Twitch to Kick. If it’s of interest to gamers, it’s of interest to Khizar.

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