Who Will Win VCT Champions 2026? These Are The Top Four Candidates

Owen Harsono Published 24/09/2026

VCT Champions 2026 is the biggest Valorant tournament of the year. 16 of the best teams in the world will gather in Shanghai, but only one can fly back home with the title.

With so many good teams at the event, it’s pretty hard to pinpoint which one is going to win, but Kalshi traders think they have a good idea of what will happen at the tournament, which ends on October 18.

100 Thieves Favored to Lift Trophy on Kalshi and Polymarket

If there’s one thing traders on prediction markets can agree on, it’s that North American squad 100 Thieves are currently looking like the best Valorant team heading into the final event of the year.

On the most popular prediction markets — Kalshi and Polymarket — traders give 100 Thieves the highest implied probability of winning the entire tournament, with a 28% chance on Kalshi and 23% on Polymarket.

Valorant Markets at Kalshi

After all, 100 Thieves were the most recent winners of an international Valorant tournament, winning the 2026 Esports World Cup several months ago. After their big win in Paris, 100 Thieves flew back home to win VCT Americas Stage 2, making it two trophies in a row.

So, if you’re looking to trade for the VCT Champions Winner market, these five North Americans might be the team to back.

If Not 100 Thieves, Who Else Can Win VCT Champions 2026?

Yes, 100 Thieves are the top dogs heading into the event, but they’re not a guaranteed lock. Here are three teams we believe are very capable of snatching the trophy for themselves:

Paper Rex – 19% Chance on Kalshi

Paper Rex is easily the most consistent Valorant team in the world, proven by their back-to-back grand final appearances in VCT Masters Santiago and London. They have gone silent since then with a last-place exit at the Esports World Cup, but we can count on them bouncing back for the most important tournament of the year.

This team has some of the best Valorant players in the world and all the tools and experience to win the VCT Champions trophy.

4.8 / 5.00

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NRG Esports – 17% Chance on Kalshi

NRG are the defending champions, having won VCT Champions 2025 last year in Paris. They’re still consistently performing at a very high level this year with deep runs in almost every event they participated in.

The team is led by in-game leader Ethan, who has already won two iterations of VCT Champions. That man clearly knows a thing or two about winning this tournament, so it wouldn’t be too surprising if he was to lead NRG to back-to-back titles.

Image via Colin Young-Wolff/Riot Games

Nongshim RedFore – 10% Chance on Kalshi

Last but not least, traders also believe Nongshim RedForce have a really good chance at the trophy in Shanghai. The South Korean team started the year with a bang, winning VCT Masters Santiago without dropping a single series.

Sure, they did undergo a noticeable decline missing out on VCT Masters London, but they’ve bounced back in recent months and are looking pretty sharp. They’ve already won a title this year, so if they can replicate their performance in Santiago, there is a world where they win VCT Champions this year.

☑️ My Take

In esports, the number one favorite rarely wins the biggest tournament of the year, likely because they’re shouldering lots of pressure which can lead to mistakes. For example, Team Vitality at IEM Cologne 2026, and TEAM VISION at The International 2026.

Though 100 Thieves have shown they can win international titles, I feel like they’re going to crack under pressure and not win Champions this year. I believe Paper Rex have a really good shot at redemption — the number one target is no longer on their backs at this event, giving them a golden opportunity to swoop in and finally get the job done.

Feature Image Credit: Colin Young-Wolff/Riot Games

Owen Harsono

About Owen Harsono

Owen lives for competition, spending most of his gaming hours on Dota 2, CS2, and Valorant. A regular on the SEA Dota 2 leaderboards, he combines his first-hand experience with a deep passion for esports journalism, following the professional scenes of all three esports betting titles religiously. When he’s not writing, he’s most probably betting on esports and watching the latest events.

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