Who will win the IEM Cologne Major 2026?
If you’re looking to play it safe and back one team at the Counter-Strike 2 IEM Cologne 2026 Major, traders prediction markets platforms have a clear frontrunner – it’s Team Vitality.
But if it’s not meant to be, there are a few other candidates that could lift the trophy. Here’s what traders on Polymarket and Kalshi think.
Team Vitality labeled as heavy favorites for IEM Cologne
If you haven’t been watching CS2 this year and are only jumping on the Major bandwagon, there are only two words you need to know: Team Vitality.
The apEX-led lineup is currently on a generational run, winning events left and right since 2025 – two of which also happen to be Majors. With their momentum continuing in 2026, Vitality are looking to cement themselves as the most elite CS2 team in the game’s long history, and the last piece they need is the IEM Cologne trophy to complete the puzzle.
The most popular CS2 prediction markets sites – Polymarket and Kalshi – have given Vitality close to a 50% chance of winning the entire tournament. You very rarely see outright odds like this in a 24-team event.
Imagine putting Vitality on one side of the coin, and 23 other teams qualified to IEM Cologne on the other – the French-based squad has a 1 in 2 chance of winning the whole thing.
To no surprise, ZywOo has been looking like the top CS2 player in the world this year, already bagging 4 tournament MVPs in five months. And in the rare cases where he’s having an off day, Vitality still have a world-class supporting cast that is capable of beating any team without his star power.
Simply put, there is no better team than Vitality right now, and the bookmarkers agree. Vitality have only lost four matches this entire year.
Who Can Actually Stop Vitality?
Image credit: Polymarket
However, CS2 Majors are always magical – there are always crazy upsets and miracle runs, and we could very well see some of that at Cologne. As good as Vitality are, they might not have a say if the Counter-Strike Gods are looking to reward another team.
If Vitality aren’t winning the Major, here are the three likeliest candidates according to traders on prediction markets:
Team Spirit
If there’s one man who can rival ZywOo, it’s donk. Though Team Spirit had a rough start to the year, things have recently clicked – and just in time. They won PGL Astana 2026 right before the Major and are looking like a serious threat. Team Spirit are defending champions, having won IEM Cologne in 2025.
Natus Vincere
If Vitality are the clear number one team in the world, NAVI have looked like the number two. They also recently took down Vitality at the IEM Atlanta 2026 semi-finals, where they went on to win the entire event. They can be lethal to them in a Best of 3.
Image credit: Stephanie Lindgren for BLAST
Team Falcons
As mentioned earlier, Vitality have only lost four matches this entire year – and half of them were at the hands of the Falcons. The team is looking a little shaky after bringing in a new in-game leader, which will take some time to settle.
On paper, they have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with Vitality, but whether all of their individuals show up on the day is a different question.
Featured image credit: ESL
Owen Harsono
Owen lives for competition, spending most of his gaming hours on Dota 2, CS2, and Valorant. A regular on the SEA Dota 2 leaderboards, he combines his first-hand experience with a deep passion for esports journalism, following the professional scenes of all three esports betting titles religiously. When he’s not writing, he’s most probably betting on esports and watching the latest events.
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