As the knockouts begin, who is going to win the 2026 World Cup?

Ben Boland Published 29/06/2026

With the 2026 World Cup entering its third week and the knockout stages now underway, it is becoming more clear which countries have a realistic chance of winning the iconic trophy on July 19 in New York.

So far, the pre-tournament favourites France and Spain have both delivered some excellent performances to show why they are widely considered as having the strongest squads. However, the extended format from FIFA means that there have been plenty of upsets, so there is still room for an underdog to get to the latter stages.

Here we will take a look at what crypto casinos and prediction markets are saying about what lies ahead.

World Cup favourites

France won the 2018 World Cup and reached the 2022 final, so recent performances suggest they have the capacity to go all the way again. Les Bleus arguably have the best all-round squad; this is particularly the case in attack where Kylian Mbappe has four goals already.

Stake odds

At the time of writing, Stake has France as clear favourites in the outright market to win the World Cup. They are rated at 4.00, ahead of Argentina (4.80) and Spain (7.20) and their last-32 match against Sweden is a game that should cause few problems for Didier Deschamps’ side.

Elsewhere, World Cup prediction markets such as Polymarket are distinct from gambling, though they allow traders to speculate on certain events and outcomes by buying contracts. England were considered among the most likely to win the 2026 World Cup before the tournament began, but Thomas Tuchel’s side have shown mixed performances and suffered some key injuries.

Polymarket england

Because of this, traders at Polymarket are predicting that the Three Lions currently have an 11% chance of getting to the final and lifting the trophy. They play DR Congo on Wednesday and have a 90% chance of winning, though this flips to a 30% chance of being eliminated in the next round where they could face hosts Mexico. You can read our Polymarket review to see how it works.

Any surprises?

Roobet odds

The World Cup so far has seen some real shock results, most notably involving Cape Verde who emerged from Group H in second place after drawing with Spain and Uruguay. The island nation are appearing at their first tournament but to go any further they will need to beat Lionel Messi’s Argentina.

Indeed, Roobet has plenty of markets for that game and Cape Verde are currently offered at 16.0 to beat the reigning World Champions — if they do manage to pull it off then it would arguably be the greatest upset of all-time.

Specials Roobet

Special markets

As well as outrights to win the 2026 World Cup and match winner markets for all fixtures, punters are also able to wager on some interesting markets at most sportsbooks. At Roobet, for example, there are betting markets for which kit provider will be kitting out the winning team; Nike is currently the major favourite. Markets get a lot more varied than that, and you can even bet on the winning continent, or whether a player will score a Panenka penalty.

Betting promos

One of the best ways to bet on the tournament and any of the markets above is with World Cup promo offers. All of the major sportsbooks have ongoing promos and these are frequently updated. We also expect more to be released for specific matches, particularly when the competition reaches the latter stages.

Currently, GGBet World Cup promos are some of the most interesting available. There are multiple free bet offers as well as early payouts and a tournament that has €25k in prizes.

Ben Boland

About Ben Boland

Ben is the Lead Editor at Win.gg, bringing a decade of iGaming industry experience having worked for both the operator and affiliation sides. With a formal journalism background, he is responsible for ensuring that every piece of content that we publish is relevant, accurate and well-written. In his own time, he enjoys playing video games and especially enjoys Rockstar titles, considering Red Dead Redemption 2 the finest title ever made. He has also spent a lot of time playing GTA V over the years and is fascinated by how streaming is changing the landscape of the industry.

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