Which Video Game Releases Can We Still Expect in 2026?
2026 is shaping up to be one of the most memorable years for video game releases in recent history. GTA 6, which is scheduled for 19 November, is clearly dominating the headlines, but there are multiple other notable titles that have a good chance of coming to market.
The popular prediction market Kalshi app is one way to gauge the likelihood of a specific event taking place, and we have scrutinised some of the popular markets with traders to see whether games like Wolverine, Nintendo Switch Sports Resort, and Marvel Tokon Fighting Souls are set for a 2026 release.
Kalshi has markets on surprise 2026 video games
Photo via Kalshi
On Kalshi, there are prediction markets for “video games released this year”. Essentially, this is a set of “Will (insert game name here) release this year?” binaries, and each named title has either Yes or No contracts whose prices reflect the community belief in it releasing in 2026.
For example, at the time of writing, Wolverine has a 97% Yes percentage, which means the overwhelming majority believe Insomniac will stick to the set September 15 release date. A delay happening appears unlikely, with just 3% of traders backing that particular outcome.
Others do not have stated release dates, though. Space game Squadron 42 has a “2026” release window. This means very little, though, as initially stated windows hardly ever stick. Nevertheless, 11% of traders on Kalshi believe it will hold true. 89% believe that since 2026 is dwindling and there’s no official date, it will be 2027 or later.
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Surprising entries
Half-Life 3 is also on the Kalshi market. This is fascinating because the game hasn’t even been announced; it’s one of those games that fans are desperate for, but Valve hasn’t even said they’re working on it. Despite that, 6% of traders were willing to predict that it will come out in the next five months.
Haunted Chocolatier has 6% voting yes as well. This also has no release date, but we do know the game exists. We’ve seen some marketing and get routine updates from ConcernedApe, the developer. Still, he has said the game is not close to releasing, so it would be a shock for it to appear in the remainder of the year — the low percentage reflects that, leaving the door open just a crack.
Light No Fire has no release date, either. It is a confirmed game, but the release is totally up in the air. That makes it unlikely for a 2026 launch, but again, it’s not totally implausible. 6% of traders are anticipating a surprise or shadow launch sometime soon.
ARK 2 (5%), Final Fantasy VII Remake #3 (5%), The Elder Scrolls 6 (4%), and Super Mario Galaxy 3 (4%) are also offered by Kalshi, and these are some of the most interesting. The Elder Scrolls 6 has been announced for almost a decade, but it is highly unlikely to release anytime soon.
Kingdom Hearts 4 was rumored but only confirmed earlier this year, so a launch in 2026 would be unexpected, to say the least. Super Mario Galaxy 3 has not been announced. Nintendo does not like to do things without ample build-up for marketing, so it remains improbable. GTA 6 has confirmed cover art, which means that its marketing should begin soon ahead of its November launch.
In other news, Kalshi displayed its recent growth with the launch of its Pro product — this gives traders access to plenty of financial exchange tools.
Featured image via ConcernedApe
Zachary Roberts
Zachary Roberts is an avid gamer and writer that loves to merge those things. He’s been featured on VideoGamer, ComicBook, New Leaf, Esports.net, and Sportskeeda as well as the On SI network of Sports Illustrated and Sporting News.
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