VCT Champions 2026 Playoffs round 1 predictions: best picks

Owen Harsono Published 07/10/2026

vct champions playoffs round 1 predictions

Top-tier Valorant is coming back, as the first round of the VCT Champions 2026 playoffs is about to begin. If you’re looking to trade on these matches, let’s go over what the prediction markets think, as well as who I believe are going to take each series.

NRG Esports vs T1

Opening the playoffs is a match between two international Valorant winners. NRG are of course looking to defend their title after winning VCT Champions 2025, while T1 are trying to make up for lost time to salvage what has been a disastrous season so far. Traders on Kalshi are favoring NRG in this series quite heavily with 72% implied probability and I’m in total agreement.

NRG have just looked very solid throughout the year and were also in good shape in groups – they took down Nongshim RedForce and Karmine Corp, which are both teams I rated highly in my VCT Champions 2026 Power Ranking.

Image via VCT Americas

On the other hand, T1 just haven’t looked great all year, and didn’t necessarily take down any strong opponents on their way to the playoffs. I believe NRG is taking a comfortable win here.

My prediction: NRG Esports 2-1 T1

Paper Rex vs LOUD

Prediction market traders believe Paper Rex vs LOUD is going to be one of the closer matches in the first round, as both teams look like they’re on equal form. Currently the implied probability is 53%-47% in Paper Rex’s favour.

However, I believe Paper Rex have a huge edge in this matchup. They’re arguably the most experienced team in the world, and have been in this situation many, many times before. They’re entering their comfort zone and I’m confident they’re going to make a deep run.

On the other hand, LOUD are a team filled with young players, and VCT Champions 2026 is the first international event for most of these guys. I believe pressure will play a very important role in this series, and LOUD are heavily lacking in that department.

My prediction: Paper Rex 2-0 LOUD

100 Thieves vs G2 Esports

We have our first regional matchup of the playoffs, as two titans from the Americas region are set to butt heads. G2 have had 100 Thieves’ number for the past few years, but those times are over – traders heavily favor 100 Thieves in this matchup.

100 Thieves were the favorite to win VCT Champions 2026 heading into the tournament, and things still look that way. They demolished the group stage, making light work of T1 and FUT without a sweat.

Meanwhile, G2 are no longer looking like the dominant squad they’ve always been. In terms of recent form, 100 Thieves are clearly in better shape. However, regional matchups can be a little bit iffy – these two teams are very familiar with each other, giving G2 a decent chance in this series.

Image via Yicun Liu/Riot Games

I believe 100 Thieves will still come out of the series on top, but G2 can definitely make it close and maybe steal a map.

My prediction: 100 Thieves 2-1 G2 Esports

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Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce

The Kalshi markets believe Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce will be the closest match of the first round – it’s almost dead even.

☑️ My View

This one is going to be very tough to predict, as both teams are very experienced in their own right. Vitality is filled with veterans, while Nongshim are also equipped with title winners.

However, I really believe Vitality are in prime form at this event, while Nongshim still look a little shaky. I’m going with Vitality in this matchup, as I have them making a very deep run this tournament.

My prediction: Team Vitality 2-1 Nongshim RedForce

Feature Image Credit: Colin Young-Wolff/Riot Games

Owen Harsono

About Owen Harsono

Owen lives for competition, spending most of his gaming hours on Dota 2, CS2, and Valorant. A regular on the SEA Dota 2 leaderboards, he combines his first-hand experience with a deep passion for esports journalism, following the professional scenes of all three esports betting titles religiously. When he’s not writing, he’s most probably betting on esports and watching the latest events.

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