Will Resident Evil Be a Box Office Flop This Weekend?
Resident Evil is finally set to hit theaters this weekend after a long press run that saw plenty of backlash. The backlash has been almost comical, but there are two ways to silence all of that. One is to make a good, well-received movie, and the other is to make a ton of money.
The box office has been great for a ton of movies this year. Is that going to be the case for Resident Evil once it drops? Traders on the prediction market Polymarket aren’t so sure.
Image credit: Polymarket
Polymarket traders predict a slow start for Resident Evil
A normal box office yield in the first weekend is around $50 million. Superhero movies or those from massive IPs tend to hit the $100 million mark. Small-budget movies don’t usually come anywhere close to that, but Resident Evil sort of exists in the in-between.
Director Zach Cregger is becoming a household name, but with just two movies out so far, he isn’t quite there yet. Resident Evil is an existing and massive IP, but the films before have been underwhelming, and there’s a sect of fans unhappy with the new movie.
To sum it up, there are multiple factors working for and against this movie. That could drive the box office up or down. If you ask Polymarket traders, it’s going to drive the financial return down. You can buy contracts for yourself — if you do so then use our promo code WINGGPREMAR.
As mentioned, a typical box office is somewhere around $50 million, but traders believe Resident Evil won’t even hit that mark. Indeed, a whopping 56% believe it’s going to get off to a bad start.
11% believe it will be $50-55 million. 12% believe it’ll fall between $55 and $60 million. The numbers continue to dwindle the higher the predicted box office market is. A $70 million first weekend would be outstanding, but just 6% of traders foresee that.
☑️ My Take
There has been plenty of vitriol about Resident Evil. A swathe of die-hard fans of the game series are frustrated that there is no Leon Kennedy or Jill Valentine present. You can find plenty of anger online about setting the movie in 2026 alongside the events of Resident Evil 2 (1998) as well.
We covered this in a previous prediction market piece on the upcoming movie. Traders on Kalshi believe that the movie will end up with a very solid Rotten Tomatoes score. Critic reaction, however, doesn’t always match box office results.
In fact, those two are more often not aligned at all. However, this is a blockbuster-type movie. It’s also coming out in the dying embers of peak movie season, so there should still be plenty of interest in the film.
Plus, this year has been ridiculously good for the box office. There are several immense box office records, such as Obsession becoming the most profitable movie ever at the time, Spider-Man: Brand New Day becoming the highest-grossing movie ever domestically, and The Odyssey setting the mark for R-rated movies.
Despite the backlash, there are plenty of fans of the games, and of Zach Cregger’s previous movies that will show up, so it’s a safe prediction that this will do well at the box office.
Of course, if it is a complete and utter failure of a movie, there isn’t a built-in fanbase that will still see it because Cregger isn’t adapting a game specifically. In contrast, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was a poor watch that strictly provided Easter eggs and fan service, yet still earned about a billion at the box office.
That said, there’s more reason for optimism than pessimism. Cregger is undefeated so far. The trailers look great. It is, in my opinion, better to take this avenue for an adaptation than to try to copy things. So, I believe the Polymarket traders are off-base here.
Feature image credit: IMDb
Zachary Roberts
Zachary Roberts is an avid gamer and writer that loves to merge those things. He’s been featured on VideoGamer, ComicBook, New Leaf, Esports.net, and Sportskeeda as well as the On SI network of Sports Illustrated and Sporting News.
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