win.gg
Win.gg Movies & TV Will Resident Evil Be a Box Office Flop This Weekend?

Will Resident Evil Be a Box Office Flop This Weekend?

Zachary Roberts
Zachary Roberts Published 18/09/2026
Google Preferred Source
Resident Evil could make a lot of money

Resident Evil is finally set to hit theaters this weekend after a long press run that saw plenty of backlash. The backlash has been almost comical, but there are two ways to silence all of that. One is to make a good, well-received movie, and the other is to make a ton of money.

The box office has been great for a ton of movies this year. Is that going to be the case for Resident Evil once it drops? Traders on the prediction market Polymarket aren’t so sure.

Resident Evil Polymarket

Image credit: Polymarket

Polymarket traders predict a slow start for Resident Evil

A normal box office yield in the first weekend is around $50 million. Superhero movies or those from massive IPs tend to hit the $100 million mark. Small-budget movies don’t usually come anywhere close to that, but Resident Evil sort of exists in the in-between.

Director Zach Cregger is becoming a household name, but with just two movies out so far, he isn’t quite there yet. Resident Evil is an existing and massive IP, but the films before have been underwhelming, and there’s a sect of fans unhappy with the new movie.

To sum it up, there are multiple factors working for and against this movie. That could drive the box office up or down. If you ask Polymarket traders, it’s going to drive the financial return down. You can buy contracts for yourself — if you do so then use our promo code WINGGPREMAR.

As mentioned, a typical box office is somewhere around $50 million, but traders believe Resident Evil won’t even hit that mark. Indeed, a whopping 56% believe it’s going to get off to a bad start.

11% believe it will be $50-55 million. 12% believe it’ll fall between $55 and $60 million. The numbers continue to dwindle the higher the predicted box office market is. A $70 million first weekend would be outstanding, but just 6% of traders foresee that.

☑️ My Take

There has been plenty of vitriol about Resident Evil. A swathe of die-hard fans of the game series are frustrated that there is no Leon Kennedy or Jill Valentine present. You can find plenty of anger online about setting the movie in 2026 alongside the events of Resident Evil 2 (1998) as well.

We covered this in a previous prediction market piece on the upcoming movie. Traders on Kalshi believe that the movie will end up with a very solid Rotten Tomatoes score. Critic reaction, however, doesn’t always match box office results.

In fact, those two are more often not aligned at all. However, this is a blockbuster-type movie. It’s also coming out in the dying embers of peak movie season, so there should still be plenty of interest in the film.

Plus, this year has been ridiculously good for the box office. There are several immense box office records, such as Obsession becoming the most profitable movie ever at the time, Spider-Man: Brand New Day becoming the highest-grossing movie ever domestically, and The Odyssey setting the mark for R-rated movies.

Despite the backlash, there are plenty of fans of the games, and of Zach Cregger’s previous movies that will show up, so it’s a safe prediction that this will do well at the box office.

Of course, if it is a complete and utter failure of a movie, there isn’t a built-in fanbase that will still see it because Cregger isn’t adapting a game specifically. In contrast, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was a poor watch that strictly provided Easter eggs and fan service, yet still earned about a billion at the box office.

That said, there’s more reason for optimism than pessimism. Cregger is undefeated so far. The trailers look great. It is, in my opinion, better to take this avenue for an adaptation than to try to copy things. So, I believe the Polymarket traders are off-base here.

Feature image credit: IMDb

Zachary Roberts Zachary Roberts
About Zachary Roberts

Zachary Roberts is an avid gamer and writer that loves to merge those things. He’s been featured on VideoGamer, ComicBook, New Leaf, Esports.net, and Sportskeeda as well as the On SI network of Sports Illustrated and Sporting News.

View full profile
Read Also
Oscars 2027 — Will the Odyssey Earn the Most Nominations? Movies & TV
Oscars 2027 — Will the Odyssey Earn the Most Nominations? Zachary Roberts The Odyssey came out in July, and it somehow delivered on all the hype and anticipation that Christopher Nolan's latest film had. Will that translate to Oscars? It can be impossible to predict how a body of voters will lean after an entire year of film releases. However, Polymarket traders think this year will be pretty easy win for Nolan and leading man Matt Damon. The Odyssey was a massive ...
Who Will Win Dancing With the Stars 35? A Look at the Favorites Movies & TV
Who Will Win Dancing With the Stars 35? A Look at the Favorites Zachary Roberts Dancing with the Stars Season 35 is well underway, with four of the initial partnerships already eliminated. Of the remaining 12 couples, five will be named finalists, and one will win. Robert Irwin and Witney Carson are the reigning champs. Someone's going to dethrone him, though. Who will it be? It has spike a lot of debate online, and Kalshi traders are making their voices heard. There are a lot ...
The Social Reckoning: Will Sequel Live up to the Original? News
The Social Reckoning: Will Sequel Live up to the Original? Zachary Roberts The Social Reckoning is going to come out next weekend, the long-awaited follow-up to 2010's The Social Network, the Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg biopic. That is largely hailed as a masterpiece and considered one of the best biopics ever. But can the sequel match up? Kalshi traders are not convinced according to the current implied probability at the prediction market. Legacy sequels are hard, especially when the original movie is ...
How Will Digger Fare on Rotten Tomatoes? Movies & TV
How Will Digger Fare on Rotten Tomatoes? Zachary Roberts As of now, only a select few people have seen Alejandro G. Iñárritu and Tom Cruise's new movie, Digger. The review embargo is in place, so there isn't a Letterboxd rating, IMDb score, or Rotten Tomatoes percentage. Polymarket traders, however, have taken a look at marketing and the immediate reactions to determine what the score will be on the review-aggregation website. On Polymarket, there are five available markets for the ...
James Bond Casting Rumors Continue — Has Jack Lowden Been Chosen? Movies & TV
James Bond Casting Rumors Continue — Has Jack Lowden Been Chosen? Zachary Roberts James Bond hasn't been cast for the next era just yet, but rumors swirl, and the prediction markets continue to shift. Daniel Craig's run as the chaarcter ended in 2021 with No Time To Die, and from then on, the film world has wondered what actor will take up the role next. The next film has a confirmed director in Denis Villenueve, but there is no cast. Obviously, the most ...
Where Will Resident Evil Land on Rotten Tomatoes? Movies & TV
Where Will Resident Evil Land on Rotten Tomatoes? Zachary Roberts Resident Evil is the next video game adaptation set to hit theaters or television screens as the genre continues to explode. On September 18 it will finally be out, and everyone will get to see what Zach Cregger and Sony have cooked up. There has been a lot of backlash online already. Avid fans of the game are frustrated because it's a movie set within the universe and has some ...
N3on Livestreams Movie Red Carpet After IRL Cosplaying As GTA 6 Streamer Kick
N3on Livestreams Movie Red Carpet After IRL Cosplaying As GTA 6 Streamer Khizar Mundia Rangesh “N3on” Mutama is having one of the busiest few weeks of his life, with multiple events coinciding to arguably give him the most publicity of his career to date. First, the GTA 6 Netflix extended look showed a streamer who looks just like N3on, which led to the creator recreating the look in an IRL stream. He has now also reportedly become the first creator to livestream a movie’s ...