A Look at What Prediction Markets Think Will Happen at the 2026 Game of the Year Awards
The Game of the Year debate is always a big one in the video game industry. From the moment a contender emerges early in a year, that game is pitted against each and every challenger that could possibly arise between then and the ceremony in December.
Sometimes, a challenger is nominated before it’s even out, as has been the case with GTA 6 this year. While there have been great games so far, it’s all been about whether or not they can compete with Rockstar’s new title.
Traders have been actively engaged with this. Most prediction markets offer a Game of the Year prediction. For the most part, it seems to be GTA 6’s award to lose, but there has been plenty of fluctuation at times and the exact nominees will be confirmed in mid-November.
Best prediction markets for the 2026 Game of The Year awards
If you’re interested in trading on the Game of the Year or other awards (like best direction, best narrative, best indie game, etc.), then you’ve come to the right place. The best two are Polymarket and Kalshi.
Kalshi literally has its own subsection for The Game Awards, offering multiple markets that you can trade on. Game of the Year, Best Narrative, Best Audio Design, and more are all available.
On Polymarket, you can find plenty of similar options under the Awards section. There, you could trade on Game of the Year, Best Multiplayer, and so many more. Our guide to Polymarket registration explains how to create an account.
Another option is Robinhood, but either way, you’re well covered if you want to predict the Game of the Year.
Which prediction markets can be used to trade on the GOTY?
As mentioned, you can use Kalshi and Polymarket, along with Gemini Exchange, to trade on video game prediction markets — the Game of the Year awards will take place in December, so hype online is only growing.
Kalshi
Image credit: Kalshi
Kalshi has had a market for Game of the Year for quite some time, and for almost all that time, GTA 6 predictions have been a major topic, with many traders backing it to win the prestigious award.
Resident Evil Requiem has gotten some love, as has Control Resonant. At times, people have thrown some weight behind Crimson Desert. Ultimately, though, they all fade, and GTA 6 remains a highly probable winner.
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Polymarket
Image credit: Polymarket
On Polymarket, it is less straightforward. GTA 6 is still the favorite, but the margin is much smaller. It seems that Polymarket traders are less inclined to hand an award to a game that no one has played yet. Pragmata and Control Resonant are the other two top contenders.
Make no mistake, though: GTA 6 still has the bulk of the support from traders. 38% is not an insignificant percentage, especially when the next-closest is 13%. Additionally, GTA 6 hasn’t stayed in the lead perpetually on Polymarket.
If you do choose to trade on Polymarket, use our WINGGPREMAR promo code for a trading bonus.
Gemini
Image credit: Gemini
Gemini is taking a page out of Kalshi’s book. GTA 6 is a heavy favorite there, earning 70% at the time of writing. Resident Evil Requiem is sitting at 20%, which is its highest mark across the three. Control Resonant is also a minor contender. Our Gemini prediction review explains all aspects of this platform.
What are online communities saying about Game of The Year?
Look anywhere online, and you’ll see a familiar refrain. Everyone expects GTA 6 to win Game of the Year. Looking at Reddit, there are tons of posts from gamers predicting what will get nominated, and GTA 6 is a mainstay.
Plus, most who are predicting winners are saying it’s GTA 6’s award to lose. Some creators and commenters will say their personal Game of the Year is something else, but that qualifier means that they know it won’t win the actual award.
☑️ My View
It is quite bold to hand a game an award before it’s even out. For example, months ago, I would’ve said that Marvel’s Wolverine would get a nomination for Game of the Year. Now, it stands virtually no chance. Games are sometimes better in theory than in practice.
However, nothing we’ve seen about GTA 6 suggests it will be that. The trailers show off an exciting, fun game that has a few minor issues. Those minor issues won’t be enough to detract from all the good things, though, and sometimes, hype does play a role — we have been waiting for this sequel since 2013.
Hollow Knight: Silksong got a nomination partly because they made good on the immense hype. So, as long as GTA 6 isn’t a huge disappointment, it’s going to be up there. I have not played a GTA game yet (this will be my first), but there’s a reason it’s the most anticipated game of all time. Unless it’s a complete flop, the prediction markets have it right.
My only issue is that it’s such a heavy favorite. Polymarket traders seem to have the best view. GTA 6 should be favored, but near 70% without anyone having played it is risky. And the fact that it’s been on top all year on Kalshi and Gemini is noteworthy, too. Ultimately, it probably doesn’t matter because it is likely to win.
Featured image credit: The Game Awards
Zachary Roberts
Zachary Roberts is an avid gamer and writer that loves to merge those things. He’s been featured on VideoGamer, ComicBook, New Leaf, Esports.net, and Sportskeeda as well as the On SI network of Sports Illustrated and Sporting News.
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