I’ve been event trading on economy prediction markets for a couple of months now, and I’m here to share what I’ve learned with you. Economy prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com allow you to buy and sell contracts relating to ongoing economic events. That could be an over/under on the closing stock price for a Fortune 500 company, or just the price of gas next week. Below, I rank the best prediction market sites that offer contracts on the economy itself.
I’ll also give you a simple guide to the platforms, types of contracts you could buy, and the pros/cons of these types of platforms.
Find the best economics prediction market sites in 2026
- What are economic prediction markets? Quick facts you need to know
- What are the different types of economic prediction markets?
- Pros and cons of economic prediction markets
- Are economic prediction markets similar to sports betting?
- My top prediction markets for the economy
- Final thoughts on economy prediction markets
- Economy prediction markets – FAQs
What are economic prediction markets? Quick facts you need to know
There’s a high chance that you’re completely new to the concept of economic prediction markets, so to kick off this guide, here are some essential facts you need to know:
- An economic prediction market asks you a question concerning a future economic event.
- To answer these questions, you need to buy or sell contracts on one of the potential outcomes.
- Each contract option will have a price of between $0.01 and $0.99 attached to it. At prediction sites such as Kalshi, this price is presented as a probability of the outcome occurring.
- Prediction markets turn collective opinions into probabilities. As such, the market price will move up or down based on the trades that have previously been placed. For instance, if a contract is priced at $0.50, this means the market rates the probability of the event occurring at approximately 50%.
- If the outcome predicted by your contract happens, you receive a payout based on the size of your contract. For example, if you buy a single contract for $0.80 and the outcome occurs, the contract will settle at $1, thus giving you gains of $0.20.
- If your prediction is unsuccessful, the contract will settle at $0, so you will lose the amount you paid for the contract.
- As long as there is sufficient liquidity, you can trade out of your contracts by selling them before the event ends, thus locking in your gains.
- In addition to economic prediction markets, it is also possible to buy and sell event contracts for sports, politics, esports and culture prediction markets.
There are two important caveats to keep in mind here. First, when a prediction market shows probabilities, those are implied probabilities based on supply and demand. The wisdom of the markets is often somewhat accurate on these prediction sites, but because it’s all based on market sentiment, these probabilities can deviate wildly from the real chance of an event coming to pass. For markets with little liquidity, big traders can even move the number intentionally, though this is something most platforms try to prevent.
The other important caveat is that prediction trading platforms are P2P. So while in theory traders are always able to sell or buy contracts, in practice, you can only buy or sell if there is someone else willing to deliver on the other half of that transaction. This is seldom an issue during normal trading days, but if a given market is in freefall due to recent news, you may find yourself unable to sell at a reasonable price, or unable to sell at all.
What are the different types of economic prediction markets?
Economic prediction markets can broadly be placed into these three categories:
| Market type | How it works | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Binary | A simple ‘yes/no’ market that gives you two opposing outcomes. |
|
| Multiple choice | These markets have several possible outcomes, each with its own separate contract. |
|
| Scaler | Rather than predicting a binary outcome, scaler markets require you to buy contracts for numerical values within defined ranges. |
|
Pros and cons of economic prediction markets
To help you decide whether or not economic prediction markets are for you, here are some of the main pros and cons attached to them:
Are economic prediction markets similar to sports betting?
One of the most common questions surrounding prediction markets is how they compare to betting sites. The truth of the matter is that whilst there are some similarities between the two concepts, there are also several key differences:
Similarities between prediction markets and sports betting
Here are the ways in which prediction markets resembles sports betting:
- Your prediction needs to be correct in order to receive a payout.
- Each market has a winner and a loser (or losers).
- Both prediction markets and traditional betting markets carry financial risk. In other words, if your prediction/bet isn’t correct, you will lose your money.
Key differences between economic prediction markets and sports betting
Those are the similarities between prediction markets and betting, so now let’s look at the main differences:
📜 Regulations
Predictions trading sites aren’t gambling, so they can be accessed in a lot more locations. Currently, predictions trading markets can be accessed in all 50 US states. The same can’t be said for sportsbooks.
🏗️ How the markets are structured
Betting market prices are placed against a bookmaker, whilst prediction markets, even esports prediction markets, require users to trade with each other. In this case, event contract prices are set by supply and demand.
💰 How the prices are set
Sports betting prices are set by the bookmaker. Prediction market prices are based on implied probability and are formed as a result of trader activity.
🎲 House edge
Whilst all sports bets have a house edge built into them that allows the bookmaker to make a small profit on each wager, this is not the case with prediction markets.
🌍 Market variety
Sportsbooks in the US only cover sporting events. Prediction markets have a much greater focus on non-sporting areas such as economy, politics and culture, so you can usually find a lot more of these markets, as well as plenty of sports prediction markets.
My top prediction markets for the economy
To round off this guide to prediction markets, we’re going to take a brief look at one of the leading names in the economic prediction market field.
Kalshi – The perfect introduction to economy prediction markets
Since publicly launching in 2021, Kalshi have allowed you to buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of real-world events. As well as the economy, Kalshi also have sports, culture, climate and politics prediction markets. All of the markets at Kalshi are intuitively laid out, with clear market choices that make it incredibly easy for you to trade your predictions.
One of the other main reasons why Kalshi is such a popular choice among prediction market users is due to their robust features. There’s a user-friendly website, an innovative mobile app, 24/7 customer support and a high quality payment platform that allows you to make swift deposits and withdrawals. Better yet, new traders at the site can also take advantage of a tidy welcome bonus to help them get started.
There are a lot of prediction market sites out there, but if you’re looking for a straightforward, no-nonsense introduction to the world of prediction markets, Kalshi makes for an excellent choice.
Polymarket – Highest trade volume and range of markets
Polymarket was founded in June 2020, and has risen to become a $9 billion juggernaut. I like Polymarket for its depth, with 14 main categories of contracts. Polymarket is best known for its politics and elections betting, but has deep economic markets as well.
The platform offered me a $50 trading credit when I deposited $10, which is a nice plus. The main advantage Polymarket has over competitors is simply breadth – Polymarket focuses more on global events rather than US-centric events, and also puts emphasis on carrying markets based on current, trending news.
It has more trades than any other prediction market platform. This results in high liquidity. I would advise any platform you use has high liquidity, as it stops a small number of bad actors having as much influence over the pricing.
Ultimately it might be decided by what’s available where you are, as Polymarket is a crypto-first and crypto-native platform, a decision that means it’s not accessible in a number of countries. Check your local laws before trying to sign up.
Crypto.com – Strong pedigree, multi-purpose platform
Unlike others in this list, Crypto.com is very strictly regulated. They’re not just a prediction market, but also a crypto broker, and a stock platform. I found the idea of having all of these things under one roof quite convenient, though I don’t trade stocks myself.
For users, the ‘Predict’ section of the site allows access to a limited selection of eight prediction markets – Sports, Crypto, Financials, Commodities, Politics, Culture, Climate, and of course, Economics.
I found the economy markets to be focused around federal announcements, global banking, jobs and economic growth activity. It’s a solid range of economic markets, and the platform has a good pedigree, dating back to 2016 – though it didn’t start offering prediction markets until 2024. In 2026, it launched a dedicated app called OG which is entirely prediction market driven.
Final thoughts on economy prediction markets
Economic prediction markets offer a unique and innovative way for you to trade predictions on the outcome of major events. Of course, before you join Kalshi, or any other prediction market site, it is important to have a clear understanding of the latest legal situation surrounding both the brand and prediction markets in your area.
Once you have found your ideal economy prediction site, remember to use our exclusive banners when opening your account, as this will ensure you go to the correct site and collect the best available welcome bonus.
Join these top prediction market platforms today
Economy prediction markets – FAQs
💱 Can I trade out of prediction markets?
💰 How are the prices set in prediction markets?
🗺️ Where are predictions markets available in the US?
Simon Day
Simon has been writing about Gaming and Sports for over a decade, with his work featured in a variety of well-known gaming magazines. In 2025, he joined win.gg as an Editorial Specialist, where he continues to share his passion for the industry through insightful and well-crafted content pieces.
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