Nine European regulators move against prediction markets amid World Cup wave

Ben Boland Published 14/07/2026

Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets

The 2026 World Cup is at the latter stages, with the final taking place this Sunday. The tournament has seen huge trading volumes on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Consequently, nine European gambling regulators have issued a joint declaration targeting unlicensed prediction markets.

In the joint statement, the regulators warned that prediction markets operating without appropriate licences pose significant consumer protection risks:

“As regulatory authorities, our role is to ensure the protection of players throughout the tournament, but also to ensure that prediction markets comply with regulatory and licensing requirements in our jurisdictions. It is important to emphasize that these types of platforms carry serious risks of illegality, fund freezes, insider trading, and financial volatility. Furthermore, because they are not regulated in most countries, they can lead to serious addiction problems.”

It is the first time that European regulators have acted as a unified bloc on this issue, with Malta previously taking a lead in regulating the space. The past few months have also seen FIFA partner with ADI Predictstreet, while for many, the football tournament is the first taste of trading.

Which European countries are moving?

Authorities from nine countries — Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland — pledged enhanced cross-border cooperation in the prediction market space; this replaces prior country-by-country enforcement with a shared position.

Spain had already ordered a temporary block on Polymarket and Kalshi by citing their lack of domestic licences, and this gave the coalition concrete precedent. The declared toolkit spans formal warnings, sanctions, service blocking, fines, advertising restrictions and account freezes. Notably, ADI Predict Street, despite being named an official FIFA World Cup 2026 betting partner, reportedly launched with no functional real-money product, relying instead on a free-to-play environment.

Additionally, there is particular focus on offshore or crypto-based operators and sports federations and clubs have been cautioned to verify any prediction market’s legal standing before entering sponsorships.

Spain blocks Kalshi and Polymarket

European regulators broadly classify these platforms as unlicensed gambling operations, with Spain blocking both Kalshi and Polymarket from operation in the country earlier this year. In May, the Ministry of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs and Agenda initiated a probe into the platforms, citing a breach of local laws and absence of user safeguards; the ban is currently a temporary one whilst the probe takes place.

The dual squeeze: Local laws and the MiCA deadline

As well as gambling enforcement, crypto prediction platforms are facing a second regulatory challenge. The Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) transitional (“grandfathering”) period ended on 1 July, 2026. From that point, crypto-asset service providers (CASPs) serving EU clients generally now require full MiCA authorisation or another valid legal basis to continue operating.

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has stated that the transitional regime is temporary and that firms should not expect further extensions. It is for this reason that industry figures fear that crypto firms are now in a position where they could lose the ability to serve users based in the EU.

So, prediction markets have a dual regulatory squeeze. Gambling regulators are challenging whether the platforms constitute unlicensed betting services under national gambling laws, while financial regulators are tightening oversight of the infrastructure used to operate and settle those markets. Although MiCA does not directly regulate prediction markets, it can clearly affect their ability to allow trades from the EU.

Editor’s view: An industry at a crossroads

The 2026 World Cup has been the most online-first version of the games to date, and prediction market apps have been a major part of this, with traders utlizing the markets to predict specific outcomes. However, this popularity also comes at a time when authorities — particularly in the EU — are defining what exactly these markets should be classed as.

While the proliferation of crypto has heightened regulatory scrutiny for some platforms, the broader concern appears to be whether prediction markets should be treated as financial exchanges, gambling products, or something in between. And the fact that multiple European countries have issued a joint statement only goes to show the direction that the industry is heading: a more unified framework and a removal of the grey areas that Kalshi and others have operated in until now.

Feature image credit: Polymarket, Kalshi

Ben Boland

About Ben Boland

Ben is the Lead Editor at Win.gg, bringing a decade of iGaming industry experience having worked for both the operator and affiliation sides. With a formal journalism background, he is responsible for ensuring that every piece of content that we publish is relevant, accurate and well-written. In his own time, he enjoys playing video games and especially enjoys Rockstar titles, considering Red Dead Redemption 2 the finest title ever made. He has also spent a lot of time playing GTA V over the years and is fascinated by how streaming is changing the landscape of the industry.

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