NFL petitions U.S. Supreme Court for clarity on prediction markets

Michael Hassall Published 09/10/2026

The heat is officially on for prediction market operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket as the NFL, one of the United States’ biggest sports leagues, is asking the U.S. Supreme Court to weigh in on the classification of prediction markets.

In a brief filed late on Thursday (Oct. 8), the National Football League (NFL) backed the state of New Jersey’s request for the U.S.’s highest legal entity to review whether prediction markets’ sports-event should be regulated by state gambling regulators.

The move could effectively force the issue of whether sports contracts, and indeed prediction markets as a whole, constitute gambling, at least on a regulatory level. Here’s how the NFL has ignited the spark that could light the fire in prediction markets’ biggest debate.

The NFL wants the U.S. Supreme Court to help classify prediction markets

Image credit: Kalshi

With the filing, the NFL has effectively petitioned the U.S.’s most important institutional legal structure into potentially making the call on whether prediction markets are gambling and should be regulated as such.

Most companies, including Kalshi and Polymarket, have officially denied that prediction market contracts on sports constitute sports gambling. Instead, they’ve likened their services to traditional financial markets, stocks and shares, etc.

Multiple entities have in recent months challenged this definition, with the State of New York initiating legal proceedings in September, and New Jersey appealing to a recent decision that gambling laws shouldn’t be enforced on Kalshi.

Now, with one of sporting’s biggest leagues entering the fray, citing concerns over its integrity, the Supreme Court may be forced to act.

In their filing, as reported by ESPN, the league stated that during the first Sunday of the 2026 NFL season, more than half of all prediction markets’ trading volume, around $1.8 billion of was related to the NFL. This surpasses the average weekly gambling volume of the league, which sits at around $570 million.

With such huge numbers at play, the concern lies in the fact that currently prediction markets are regulated by the The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an organization with just a few hundred employees, covering the entire U.S..

If the Supreme Court agree that prediction markets should be regulated by gambling regulations, it would put them under the purview of state gambling regulatory bodies, organizations with hundreds of employees in every single states, tens of thousands nationally.

It’s a watermark moment for prediction markets, with their regulatory future on the line.

Featured Image credit: NFL/Lindsey Wasson/Associated Press

Michael Hassall

About Michael Hassall

Michael is a eight-year veteran of the games writing space, but has being playing them for as long as he can remember. With bylines across the internet, he’s used his expertise to cover esports, prediction markets, mainstream gaming, streamers, and more besides.

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