The International 2021 Compendium has now seen its predictions section brought online. With its arrival, Dota 2 players can make their picks and look to earn some of the limited edition Lineage Treasure skins.
Predictions are difficult any year, with six or seven correct picks being the best case scenario for many. It’s a mixed bag in 2021 as the extended layoff between the AniMajor and TI10 has offered a lot of tournaments to watch, but has resulted in many earlier favorites cooling off.
Most people just don’t have the time to pour over all the stats for this. We here at WIN.gg do, and these are our best predictions for TI10.
Picking heroes is often tricky because of how a meta develops in tournaments before The International, a meta develops as teams scrim for The International, and then a final meta develops at The International when millions of dollars are on the line. The style of competitive Dota 2 that will be played at TI10 isn’t something that has been seen before, so the only real way to make predictions is to make an estimated guess based on other tournaments with a hint of Immortal-level pub match results.
Luckily, there have been more tournaments in the lead-up to TI10 than in years past. That makes it so that there’s a bit of extra confidence when it comes to making these picks.
The most-picked hero and most-banned hero should be relatively easy choices. Across multiple tournaments played in multiple regions, Pangolier and Batrider have taken these respective spots or been close to them.
Spectre is looking to be an impactful carry at TI10, which warrants her being picked for some of the carry-focused categories here including highest kill average, highest last hit average, and highest XPM average.
Spectre isn’t quite elusive enough to justify a pick in the lowest death average category, however. That honor goes to Slark, who has been getting enough play to hit that five game minimum and is frustratingly slippery, as anyone who plays Dota 2 well knows.
PSG.LGD won the last major and has performed very well in multiple tournaments that have been played since. This is in large part thanks to how the team is very good at closing games out once it has a lead and at holding the high ground if things go sideways. Conveniently, the team also has an aggressive and bloody play style.
That makes PSG.LGD a strong pick for most of these categories. Those who are looking to diversify their portfolio a bit can look to other contenders such as Evil Geniuses and Team Secret, but there’s a reason why PSG.LGD is the favorite to win this event.
Things are a bit trickier in the more superlative categories, but there’s a large enough body of work to make some informed picks there as well.
When it comes to highest average game length, T1 has been at or near the top of this category in most of its recent events. It has some competition from Undying, Team Aster, and Team Spirit, but T1 is the strongest pick in this category.
Most different heroes picked has historically been dominated by Team Secret and there’s no reason to think that changes this year. Unless the team undergoes a serious strategic overhaul or washes out of TI10 early, this is one of the most confident predictions Dota 2 players can make.
Finally, the fewest different heroes played largely boils down to a team that will lose games early, retreat back into comfort picks, and then get eliminated early on. SG esports is a good pick for this, but any team that is a candidate for a group stage elimination is a solid choice here.
Player and team dynamics are easy to track across entire seasons and that makes TI player predictions one of the ones that can be most confidently picked. Or at least that’s the case in theory, because a lot of the categories are focused on singular games rather than an overall body of work.
For most of these categories, PSG.LGD is the team to look to. While there’s plenty of wiggle room for the “in a game” categories, PSG.LGD players are solid options for each of them.
PSG.LGD is one of the favorites to win TI10 and the team has a highly aggressive play style that makes them logical choices for most of these categories. Cheng “NothingToSay” Jin Xiang and Wang “Ame” Chunyu and Ame always gets farm. Zhao “XinQ” Zixing is possibly the best position-four player in the world and this is reflected in how he accrues assists.
The two categories in which PSG.LGD players might not be the best picks are the lowest death average and the most different heroes played.
Nikolay “Nikobaby” Nikolov is the best choice for lowest death average. He’s historically been very strong in this category and that’s been the case throughout 2021, even when Alliance doesn’t play well as a team.
When it comes to the most different heroes played, the only choices are Michał “Nisha” Jankowski or Lasse Aukusti “MATUMBAMAN” Urpalainen. Team Secret has historically dominated this category thanks to the team’s peerless hero diversity. Unless Team Secret washes out of TI10 early, Nisha or MATUMBAMAN are almost certainly going to win this category.
A lot of this is informed by previous editions of The International, which have seen largely consistent results.
The total number of heroes picked should be 101+, as this mark will almost certainly be hit at the event. 91 to 100 different heroes banned is a strong pick, though it’s possible things creep past 101 there as well.
The shortest game of the tournament will very likely be between 15:00 and 19:59. There’s a chance that there could be a shorter game than that, but it’s unlikely.
Most kills by a hero in a game is likely to be one of the three highest choices, so picking the middle in 23 to 25 is a strong choice. Most deaths by a hero in a game will likely be either 15 to 17 or 18 to 20.
Most assists in a game will come down to whether a hero that naturally racks up a lot of assists, such as Zeus, Bounty Hunter, or Necrophos, will end up making the cut as common hero picks. If that happens, 36+ is possible. If not, one of the other higher categories makes sense.
Past that is a lot of guesswork that revolves around how the emerging meta will shake out. Worth noting that the highest GPM in a game isn’t the normal 1,000+. Though players have historically been able to rely on an Alchemist to run wild at least once in the event, that hero is weaker than it ever has been, making the 800 to 899 a more realistic option for another hero that gets out of control.