Rogue Warriors vs. FunPlus Phoenix: LPL Spring betting analysis

William Davis Published 18/01/2021

It’s time for Rogue Warriors to try and perform against one of the LPL giants and former world champion FunPlus Phoenix.

After a mixed start to the 2021 LPL Spring Split for both teams, it’s time to see who will start off week three with the momentum. Rogue Warriors has already played three best-of-three series this season, but only managed to win one of them. FPX has only been in battle two times, and just like Rogue Warriors, they’ve come out with only a single win.

Rogue Warriors started out the season in the first week where the team was paired up with a strong Team WE lineup. The series was fairly one-sided, resulting in a clean-cut 2-0 sweep for Team WE. It was never expected that Rogue Warriors would win that series, but it certainly got the players in the mood for the next series against defending LPL champions Top Esports.

Against Top Esports, Rogue Warriors pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season by winning 2-1. Rogue Warriors lost the first game, but in miraculous fashion, they turned it around and snatched the victory right in front of mid laner Zhuo “knight” Ding and the rest of Top Esports. Unfortunately for Rogue Warriors, they couldn’t keep up that momentum against eStar and are now once again on a losing trend.

On the other side is FPX, a team that has also had a mixed start to the season after picking up reigning world champion top laner Jang “Nuguri” Ha-gwon. Nuguri has performed decently in China thus far but isn’t exactly taking the league by storm. The South Korean top laner might still need some time to adjust before popping off as he did in 2020.

FPX started out the season quite strong against a poor OMG squad. FPX took OMG down in a 2-0 fashion, which was expected for such an experienced and star-studded roster. The victory against OMG was followed up by a much tougher match against EDward Gaming, where FPX really was exposed for its weaknesses. EDG was the better team and ran away with the victory 2-1.

This leaves both Rogue Warriors and FPX with a recent loss entering this match. It will therefore be crucial to see who will bounce back the best and get on a winning track again. On paper, there is no doubt that FPX looks the strongest, but Rogue Warriors has already created a big upset once this season.

To take down FPX, Rogue Warriors will have to do like they did against Top Esports, which is to play their own game. If Rogue Warriors starts to play on FPX’s terms, then it will go terribly wrong. They need to draft comfort picks and not be afraid to fight. Playing up in FPX’s face can take them by storm and potentially cause an upset.

With that said, FPX looks too experienced for that to happen and should be able to cruise to a victory.

Nuguri

FunPlus Phoenix vs. Rogue Warriors rosters:

FunPlus Phoenix:

Top – Jang “Nuguri” Ha-gwon
Jungle – Gao “Tian” Tian-Liang
Mid – Kim “Doinb” Tae-sang
Bot – Lin “Lwx” Wei-Xiang / Lee “Prince” Chae-hwan
Support – Liu “Crisp” Qing-Song

Rogue Warriors:

Top – Chen “Ziv” Yi
Jungle – Chen “Haro” Wen-Lin
Mid – Deng “Forge” Jie / Yin “xifeng” Huan
Bot – Lu “Betty” Yu-Hung / Zhang “Michi” Bo-Yi
Support – Zhang “QiuQiu” Ming / Peng “Reheal” Jun-Jie

FunPlus Phoenix heavy favorites against Rogue Warriors

The difference in history and experience around the two organizations and all the players are simply in too big favor of FPX. The former world champions have world-class players in each position and it’s hard to imagine how Rogue Warriors can take them down. A player like Nuguri alone would be able to crush Rogue Warriors on a good day.

The bookmakers are also fairly confident that FPX will take the victory in this match. A win for FPX only gives odds 1.12 while Rogue Warriors give odds 5.10. It’s an uneven match on paper and it will likely show on Summoner’s Rift.