Rogue vs Misfits: 2022 LEC Spring playoff betting analysis

William Davis Published 24/03/2022

The 2022 LEC Spring Playoff is finally kicking off starting with an upper-bracket best-of-five showdown between top seed Rogue and the big surprise of this split, Misfits Gaming.

The two teams will fight for survival in the upper bracket and direct advancement into the semifinals. By starting in the upper half of the bracket, these teams will only be two wins away from a spot in the final and it all starts with this first-round match.

Both teams will enter the match with a lot of confidence after successfully finishing the regular split. Rogue will be the team that most eyes are on as it finished the regular split in first place with a 14-4 record. Rogue will be paired with Misfits, who finished in third place with a surprising record of 12-6.

Each team has shown great strength in different ways, with Rogue consistently taking down the biggest names in the European region while Misfits has surprised in several matches in which it wasn’t favored to win. This frames Misfits as the big underdog for this playoff series, but a team no one should underestimate.

Rogue looking to beat Misfits Gaming individually

Hopefully Rogue won’t underestimate Misfits despite coming into this match as the obvious favorite. The team has played like a well-oiled machine all split, with only a few missteps. With that said, Misfits won’t be the easiest opponent for Rogue as the two went even in head-to-head games played during the regular split.

This leaves a lot of questions to be answered in this best-of-five. Rogue should have an advantage because of its individual prowess in each position and ability to adapt to different play styles. As shown throughout the split, Rogue doesn’t have just a single carry its forced to rely on and can instead take advantage of carry potential its roster.

For Misfits, the team seems a little more one-dimensional as the responsibility has been on mid laner Vincent “Vetheo” Berrié to carry. This has also been a successful strategy for Misfits this split, but when going up against Rogue in a playoff series like this, it’s important to have more strategic diversity.

Only time will tell if Misfits has figured out new strategies over the last couple of weeks and if it will be able to pull any of them off against Rogue. In this series, it’s expected that Rogue will come out firing from all angles right from the start to put pressure on Misfits. In raw skill, Rogue will on paper be able to outperform Misfits in the laning phase and dictate the series’ pace.

Misfits will have to disrupt that, either with new strategies or with drafts full of abusable champions in the meta. With several weeks’ break, the LEC playoff meta might turn out a lot different and give an advantage to teams that are able to figure it out quickly. This will be something Misfits can play towards in the attempt to create an upset.

If Misfits doesn’t show up strong individually or prepared strategically, then Rogue will be an extremely hard opponent to upset.

Rogue vs. Misfits Gaming rosters

Rogue roster:

Top – Andrei “Odoamne” Pascu
Jungle – Kim “Malrang” Geon-seong
Mid – Emil “Larssen” Larsson
Bot – Markos “Comp” Stamkopoulos
Support – Adrian “Trymbi” Trybus

Misfits Gaming roster:

Top – Shin “HiRit” Tae-min
Jungle – Lucjan “Shlatan” Ahmad
Mid – Vincent “Vetheo” Berrié
Bot – Matúš “Neon” Jakubčík
Support – Mertai “Mersa” Sari

Rogue expected to take first step towards 2022 LEC trophy against Misfits

As the first seed after the regular split and a team with a lot of star power, Rogue will be the expected winner of this best-of-five to open the 2022 LEC Spring Playoff. Even though Rogue has shown a few inconsistencies throughout the split that can potentially be abused, it will be hard to do that over more than one game. Misfits will need to take three games away from Rogue to come out victorious, which seems hard even for a team of Misfits’ caliber. The synergy and individual skill of Rogue may be too much of a challenge for Misfits to match. We expect Rogue to take this win. The series itself could be close, but we still predict that Rogue will take this fairly comfortably with a 3-1 series score.

Betting on Rogue to win straight up will give odds of 1.35 while a win for Misfits has greater odds at 2.95. The raw value in Rogue isn’t big, but adding a handicap on Rogue can give a great profit.

The upper-bracket match between Rogue and Misfits Gaming is set to kick off on Friday, March 25.

William Davis

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