Fnatic vs. Rogue: 2021 LEC Summer playoff betting analysis

Christian Vejvad • August 27, 18:46

An exciting weekend in the LEC is waiting with the conclusion of the 2021 LEC Summer Split coming up, starting with the lower-bracket final between Fnatic and Rogue. 

The two teams will fight for the last spot in the grand final, where MAD Lions are currently waiting. Both teams are already qualified for the 2021 World Championship, so now all the focus will be on the LEC trophy. For Fnatic, a win would mean completing its impressive run through the lower bracket, while Rogue will have to bounce back from a rough 0-3 loss to MAD Lions in the upper bracket. 

Going into the match, Fnatic will likely be the team with the most confidence after taking down G2 Esports in an intense five-game series. Prior to that, Fnatic knocked out Vitality and Misfits respectively and has effectively turned into the dream crusher for this playoff. With Rogue being the next target on the list, Fnatic will have to bring its absolute best game to beat the first-seeded Rogue team. 

While Rogue entered the playoffs as the first seed, it hasn’t been the journey that its players and fans had hoped for. Even though Rogue took down Misfits in the first round of the upper bracket, it was not an impressive win. Moving on to face MAD Lions for the first spot in the final, Rogue was exposed for its inability to play a controlled late game and was punished for it. 

To bounce back from a rough loss to MAD Lions, Rogue will have to focus on the players’ mental state and try to fix the issues that MAD Lions exposed. In that series, Rogue was able to pull out some great early and mid games but ultimately lost late. This is something that Rogue has to fix, as Fnatic will be more than capable of playing as a team.

For Rogue to bounce back from that, it’s not on individual players to step up but rather on the team and the coaching staff as a whole to figure out why the team collapses in the later stages. So far, jungler Kacper “Inspired” Słoma has been great at making things happen early for Rogue, but the team will need to hold onto the leads that are being given. 

It is the right time to prove it against Fnatic, who sometimes give away easy kills and make crucial macro mistakes. This is exactly what Rogue will be looking to punish.

If Fnatic doesn’t make those mistakes, then it might be a different story. Individually, Fnatic is looking sharp with jungler Gabriël “Bwipo” Rau and top laner Adam “Adam” Maanane on fire after the win against G2. These two have proven to be clutch when it matters most and can withstand the pressure of a five-game series with everything on the line. 

Fnatic vs. Rogue rosters

Fnatic roster: 

  • Top – Adam “Adam” Maanane
  • Jungle – Gabriël “Bwipo” Rau
  • Mid – Yasin “Nisqy” Dinçer
  • Bot – Elias “Upset” Lipp
  • Support – Zdravets “Hylissang” Galabov

Rogue roster: 

  • Top – Andrei “Odoamne” Pascu
  • Jungle – Kacper “Inspired” Słoma
  • Mid – Emil “Larssen” Larsson
  • Bot – Steven “Hans Sama” Liv
  • Support – Adrian “Trymbi” Trybus

Fnatic and Rogue neck-to-neck in LEC playoffs

Despite having a lot of close series so far in the LEC playoffs, this one between Fnatic and Rogue might end up being the closest of them all. According to the bookmakers, this will be a complete coin flip between the two and could potentially turn out to be the fifth series that goes to all five games this split.

Picking a winner for this match may be hard, but it still seems like Fnatic will have an edge based on recent results. Fnatic has won three best-of-five series in a row while Rogue is coming off a bad loss to MAD Lions. This should give Fnatic the mental edge needed to pull out a victory. 

Betting on Fnatic to win will give odds 1.86, while a win for Rogue will give the exact same odds. This match completely is set evenly before the teams take to Summoner’s Rift to decide who the better team actually is

The match between Fnatic and Rogue kicks off on Saturday, August 28. 

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