ESL Road to Rio NA: Cloud9 vs Orgless Betting Analysis

Nick Johnson • April 23, 20:21

After a poor opening day for both teams, Cloud9 and Orgless will take to the online stage in both team’s second matchup of ESL’s Road to Rio Regional qualifier. Cloud9 suffered a 2-1 upset loss to Triumph, while Orgless lost a rough 2-0 to Evil Geniuses. Both of these teams are on the low end of the spectrum to make it to one of the five spots Valve has alotted to the North American region.

Early lines have this one going Cloud9’s way at 1.49 to Orgless’ 2.50, and the immediate reasoning seems sound. The teams have played each other six times in the past three months ending in the lower bracket final of Flashpoint. Cloud9 came out on top of that matchup and with a two-match lead in the head to head and a score of 4-2 in Cloud9’s favor. That said, Cloud9 isn’t lighting up Orgless in these matches. C9’s largest margin of victory was only five rounds in the six times that they’ve faced off in 2020.

Orgless has plenty of talent, just not enough for C9

While Cloud9 does tend to get the better of Orgless in their matchups, the last three mettings between the two have gone to C9 by of only 11 total rounds. While Orgless may not have the pure firepower to force Cloud9 out of the server in dominant fashion, Orgless does have two weapons that teams ignore at their own peril. Matthew “WARDELL” Yu and Yassine “Subroza” Taoufik fill the primary AWP and rilfer positions on the team, respectively. When both of them are comfortable, they’re a force to be reckoned with and allow Orgless to put up decent numbers against some very good teams.

Unfortuntately, WARDELL has a habit of overextending when he’s winnning fights. This tendency often dooms Orgless against tougher teams who immediately take advanage of it. It’s possible that Orgless take their match against Cloud9, but the team’s run of form throught Flashpoint against Orgless and others in that skill bracket mean its unlikely.

Orgless Best Maps:

  • Mirage: 4-2, 66.7%
  • Overpass: 4-2, 66.7%
  • Train: 7-4m 66.7%

Cloud9’s strong Flashpoint season should continute at Road to Rio

Cloud9 is a solid pick to make it out of the Road to Rio with a decent stack of RMR points this tournament, and they’re certainly favorites here against Orgless. They have clear strengths like their teamplay and general coordination. They have the ability to shake off poor halves, rounds, calls, and plays, and restart seemingly at will. However, there is one thing that is puzzling about Cloud 9.

The team has a bizzarely low KAST%. This is a measure by a player impacts rounds through kills, assists, surviving the round, or trading an enemy kill. Good teams have KAST%’s in the 70-80% range. Great teams, like Europe’s Astralis or North America’s own Team Liquid, regularly post numbers close to 90%. Cloud9 members are all hovering around the low 70s, which could portend a lack of potential growth if the team’s individuals can’t perform better.

Given their 2020 record of 20-9, we’d expect at least one or two members to post something higher. But that’s the mystery. No one knows who the catalyst for Cloud9 is right now, The roster lacks a clear standout performer for the team to set up or rally around, and therefore lacks a way to get into games they should be winning. C9’s losses have come against expected teams like Astralis, but they’ve also come against teams that are statsically and observably worse than they are. Cloud9’s loss to Station7 in Season 3 of WINNERS League is a perfect example.

Cloud9 Best Maps

  • Train: 9-3, 75%
  • Overpass: 6-3, 68.7%
  • Dust2: 4-2, 68.7%

If WARDELL can reign in his trademark agression and Subroza can find a groove early, there’s a distinct possbility that Orgless could take a map in the best-of-three.

Unfortunately for Orgless, the veto is the hardest obstacle to overcome. Cloud9’s permaban is Mirage, Orgless’ best map. C9’s other favorite maps, like Train and Overpass, are also the maps that Orgless like to play on. Cloud9 just generally plays them better.

Cloud9 should win the best-of-three, but WINNERS.bet has other markets with nice lines to be found. Take the evens for total round count for any of the maps, five out of six matchups between Orgless and Cloud9 have ended in an even number. As for total maps, we wouldn’t be surprise if Orgless could take a map off of C9. They’ve played them close recently, and the wildcards of Subroza and WARDELL make it if not likely, then possible.

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