Dire win rate soars over Radiant at 2023 Winter DPC

The win rate for the dire side has exploded in the Winter Dota Pro Circuit season, with two regions surpassing 60%.

The differences between Dire and Radiant may seem small to newer players, but Dota 2 veterans know to take advantage of their half of the field’s perks. Radiant has historically held an advantage over Dire, and that remains true for public matchmaking in patch 7.32. However, the pro scene has undergone a total reversal. The upper division of every region had a Dire-favored win rate for the first tour of 2023, but why?

The stats collected by Liquipedia show the side win rates in every upper division across all six regions favored Dire over Radiant. The most balanced region was South America with a 52.11% Dire win rate. Western Europe was the least balanced at an astounding 62.67%. The Radiant advantage began slowly slipping away in 2022, but now it’s completely gone.

Is Dire better than Radiant in Dota 2?

In the pro scene, Dire is the more successful side with higher win rates across all regions. However, Radiant still wins the majority of games in Dota 2 matchmaking.

The Dire’s advantages are many, with a much more natural farming pattern in the jungle and better access to Roshan in the late game. Almost all heroes can stack two camps at once near the dire outpost, leading to higher average GPMs for dire carries. In addition, the three dire jungle vision towers give complete vision over nearly all jungle entrances and exits. 

Radiant isn’t completely helpless since that side has the better triangle with a safer farming route extending toward the Dire safe lane. Radiant is also somewhat more difficult to smoke gank since several ramps from the river to the bottom jungle all funnel into the same chokepoint. However, the Dire’s jungle advantages statistically outweigh Radiant’s in professional play.

The pre-game coin flip is also a determining factor. Pro teams still generally prefer deciding the draft order instead of choosing between Dire and Radiant. This gives the unlucky team the option of either side, and they tend to choose dire. As a result, Dire teams tend to be drafting at a small disadvantage. If that could somehow be accounted for, it would likely raise Dire’s win rate every further. 

Radiant win rate still beats Dire in pubs

Despite the massive shift favoring dire in the Dota Pro Circuit, Radiant teams still have a higher win rate in public matchmaking.

According to Dotabuff’s stats from last month, heroes tend to have slightly higher win rates on Radiant than Dire in 7.32. The spread varies by hero, but the advantage is usually around 2%. There are a total of 16 heroes that have win rates above 50% on Radiant but lose on average when playing Dire. There are some exceptions, such as Magnus’ averaging wins on Dire but losses on Radiant.

There are several reasons for this contrast, and the most straightforward one is that pros tend to abuse Dire’s advantages more than pub players. Many players also insist that the position of the camera plays role, with the Radiant point of view feeling more natural. 7.33 will likely introduce big changes to the Dota 2 map, so these trends could be reversed once the patch finally comes out.