G2 Esports vs. Rogue: 2020 LEC Summer Playoffs betting analysis
The two teams haven’t met each other since week 6 of the split, where G2 ended up running away with the victory. In fact, Rogue has not managed to beat G2 a single time in the organization's history.
While G2 is ahead in head-to-head play, Rogue has been the better team of the split so far. Rogue finished the regular split in first place with a 13-5 record, while G2 took the third-place spot with a mediocre 11-7 record.
In the playoffs, both teams were knocked down to the lower bracket by Fnatic, so it only makes sense that the two will now fight to meet Fnatic once again.
Rogue has impressed throughout the split with its disciplined playstyle and consistent performances across the map. Emil “Larssen” Larsson especially has been an important piece to the puzzle, playing the best split in his career. The Swedish mid laner has played a lot of control mages such as Azir, Orianna, and Corki with great success. Meanwhile, Steven “Hans Sama” Liv and Oskar “Vander” Bogdan have been consistent in the bot lane, giving Rogue very few weaknesses.
G2 has had an unusually shaky split, where it hasn't been as tight as it was in the spring. Opponents have been able to keep up with G2 in almost every role, except the mid lane where Rasmus “Caps” Winther has been playing out of his mind. The bot lane has been especially weak, where Luka “Perkz” Perković and Mihael “Mikyx” Mehle have not been living up to expectations.
Even though G2 has been on the back foot in many games throughout the split, it has been able to beat Rogue twice. This suggests that G2 might have the perfect playstyle to counter Rogue, which tends to play slow and controlled. On the other hand, G2 likes to play aggressively and get a lead early that can be snowballed early.
The opposing playstyles mean that Rogue will have to withstand the early aggression from G2, where Marcin “Jankos” Jankowski will look to gank whenever he can. If they manage to do that, they might be able to win through the mid or bot lane whenever they hit the late game.
G2 is still able to play late game compositions, but the team struggled against Fnatic. G2 will look to rely on Caps in the late stages of the game, where he has been known to do a lot of damage in team fights.
G2 Esports is favored to beat Rogue in LEC Playoffs
It’s always hard to bet against G2, especially when a lot is on the line. G2 will be fighting to make the finals, something that they haven't missed since the 2018 summer playoffs. Meanwhile, Rogue will be looking to make its first LEC final.
The difference in experience gives G2 a big advantage, which is why a G2 win only gives odds 1.29, while a Rogue win gives 3.25. Rogue is a massive underdog considering how well they have been playing this split. There is a very real chance Rogue can take the win here, but this ultimately comes down to how the bettor feels about G2's ability to come through when it counts.
G2 and Rogue will meet on Summoner’s Rift on Saturday, September 5.
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