Natus Vincere vs. Complexity ESL One Cologne Betting Analysis

Nick J. August 22, 2020

ESL One Cologne continues on August 23 with what should be a great matchup between Natus Vincere and Complexity in the upper bracket semifinals.

Both teams are going into this best-of-three for a spot in the upper bracket finals looking strong.

Na`Vi is coming off a solid win against a resurgent mousesports team that looked great until it ran into MAD Lions in the tournament's lower bracket. Even though it took Oleksandr "s1mple" Kostyliev three maps to put away mousesports, solid performances across the board from its roster puts Na'Vi in an excellent position going forward.

In its opening match, Complexity demolished MAD in the opening round with a 16-3 win on Overpass before closing out Nuke in overtime. There, individual performances led by Valentin "poizon" Vasilev and in-game leader Benjamin "blameF" Bremmer were the team's keys to success.

Na`Vi and Complexity's Cologne matchup is one to watch, especially in key markets

Natus Vincere is finally getting performances from key players that aren't named s1mple. Both Ilya "Perfecto" Zalutskiy and Egor "flamie" Vasilev looked great in the team's opening match, with both players showing off the firepower that allowed Na`Vi to win IEM Katowice 2020. But it was still the s1mple show during the opening round, where the Na`Vi star posted a +22 kill differential and a 1.28 rating over the series' three maps. While neither flamie nor Perfecto's statistics jump off the page, it was highlight plays like the one below that eventually put mousesports away.

Complexity's strong showing on Overpass transitioned into a long, drawn-out ordeal on Nuke, hinting that COL could be more map and player-dependant than previously thought. 

Natus Vincere's Best Maps

  • Overpass: 8-4, 66.7%
  • Train: 9-5, 64.3%
  • Mirage: 8-5, 61.5%

Na`Vi should have a serious edge in this matchup. Its best map, Overpass, is also one of Complexity's weakest. Complexity's best map is Dust 2, which also happens to be one of Natus Vincere's best. Na'Vi has a clear edge on Overpass and will almost certainly ban Vertigo. Nuke, Mirage, and Inferno are the maps where COL might have an advantage.

Complexity's Best Maps

  • Nuke: 23-7, 76.7%
  • Dust 2: 18-6, 75%
  • Mirage: 23-15, 60.5%

Complexity is currently sitting at 2.20 to Na`Vi's 1.60 in outright line on WINNERS.bet, a solid set of odds for players who want to take a small risk on the entirety of Complexity's roster showing up. Without Will "RUSH" Wierzba and Kristian "k0nfig" Wienecke backing up Complexity's top performers in blameF and poizon, it's going to be tough for them to take on a Na`Vi team that finally seems to be firing on all cylinders. But despite s1mple's overwhelming presence, Na`Vi is beatable when Denis "electronic" Sharipov and flamie don't show up. 

The last time these two teams played one another, Complexity came out on top in dominant fashion on Mirage 16-3 and Dust 2 16-8. Surprisingly, Na`Vi won nuke 16-5. Taking this and the rosters' recent matchups into account, there could be huge opportunity there for side markets based on rounds played. 

In more niche markets, Na`Vi are the better pistol round players by a 2% margin, but the real money is taking Complexity for the round 2 break if and when they lose the pistol round. blameF and his roster currently have the highest round two break percentage out of all top-20 teams at 37.1%. That means that Complexity wins the second round after losing the pistol more than one out of three times, a solid risk to take for what is normally rare sight in CSGO.

Na`Vi will take on Complexity in the ESL One Cologne semifinals on Sunday, August 23.