G2 Esports vs Rogue: 2020 LEC Summer Split betting analysis

Melany M. July 24, 2020

Rogue and G2 Esports are playing Saturday in the battle between the first and sixth place teams in the 2020 LEC Summer Split.

The LEC has this ongoing narrative of the elite three, the trio of teams that are always at the top and are likely to reach finals every split. That elite three consists of Fnatic, G2, and Origen. People talk about these teams and put their money on them without hesitation. This summer, two teams are challenging this narrative: Rogue and MAD Lions.

Rogue and MAD are currently tied in first place, both with three victories over the teams tied in third. Even if Rogue and MAD lose both of matches this weekend, they will remain at the top. On Saturday, the new guard faces the old guard, as Rogue and G2 are playing their second game of the split.

G2 is having a hard time getting on the same page. Every player has their own idea on how to play the match. At any given moment, all five players seem to want different things, and that situation leads to a constant stream of chaos. Not the type of chaos where G2 uses to confuse its opponent and thrive. No, it’s the type of chaos where G2 loses control of the match early and can't get it back.

Where G2 is failing, Rogue is succeeding. Rogue plays an organized game, checking all the right boxes at the right times. Rogue doesn’t rush into its plays, but still manages to play at a high pace. This team understands how to position in team fights. Whether it is by fighting front to back or going for smart flanks, Rogue knows how to fight. When it comes to getting neutral objectives, Rogue’s setup is second to none. Even when the team is ahead, Rogue doesn’t take any chances.

The key matchup here is between Polish junglers Kacper "Inspired" Słoma and Marcin "Jankos" Jankowski. This summer split is all about junglers and supports in the LEC, and what opportunities can they create for their teams. The jungler that gets to the play first is the jungler that takes the win. Now more than ever, junglers need to play a proactive game. Who ends up outperforming who will depend almost solely on the junglers.

G2 the favorite to win versus Rogue

Odds are yet to catch up with the new reality in the LEC. Week after week, G2 is the favorite to win, even when they end up losing dramatically. This week is no exception. On Winners.bet, G2 is at 1.65 odds against Rogue’s 2.08. That number might get closer depending on the results on Friday, and considering G2's recent struggles, Rogue might represent a smart betting opportunity.