G2 Esports vs. Fnatic: 2020 LEC Summer Split betting analysis

Fnatic and G2 Esports are closing week seven in the 2020 LEC Summer Split in Europe’s Match of the Week.

In previous splits, Fnatic versus G2 used to be a clash between the two top teams in the league and a battle for first place. In recent times, G2 has battled just to stay in playoff contentions, while Fnatic is tied in third with SK Gaming. This season, the standings are looking noticeably different than in previous years.

Fnatic and G2 both finished week six with one victory and one defeat. Despite taking one win, things looked rough for both teams. These teams have opposing issues. While G2 struggles in the early game, Fnatic has a hard time in the middle and late game.

G2 knows to how capitalize on the enemy’s mistakes and stabilize its matches. Being able to do that will give G2 an edge over Fnatic, a team that gets overly eager no matter how big of an advantage it has.

In the mid game, Fnatic tends to commit to unnecessary team fights and situations that don’t benefit the overall state of the game. These are the situations that G2 can punish, and it’s exactly the way G2 has defeated Fnatic in the past. Fnatic wants to do too much, even when it doesn’t have to do anything. That attitude backfires more often than not.

G2 Esports favored to take the match over Fnatic

On Winners.bet, G2 has the edge over Fnatic with 1.65 odds against 2.08. The match between Fnatic and G2 won’t be decided by a particular lane’s matchup, but instead by the decision making at a particular point in the game.

It’s already established that G2 struggles in the early game. In the spring, the team managed to fix that deficit, but in the summer, it went back to the same mistakes as before. It might be due in part to Marcin “Jankos” Jankowski, who has been underperforming in the jungle for most of the summer split.

Fnatic knows how to make early plays and create an advantage, which could allow Fnatic to take advantage of Jankos’ missteps. But Fnatic’s issues start as the team transitions out of the laning phase. It’s normal for the Fnatic players to overcommit and die at the wrong times, those plays open a window of opportunity big enough for G2 to take over the match.

If Fnatic wants to win, it needs to take a page out of Origen’s book and play a slower game without any wild risks.

G2 and Fnatic play on August 1 at 2 PM CST.