Hollywood subtly banning prediction markets on movies

Zachary Roberts Published 10/11/2026

Up until now, it had been pretty easy and accessible to trade on movie news and information with prediction markets, no matter who you were. Hollywood is slowly changing that. Prediction markets like Kalshi have markets for movie release dates, casting news, Rotten Tomatoes scores, box office returns, and more.

Hollywood has been concerned that insiders could profit from the prediction market version of insider trading. Say you’re a casting director and know who the next James Bond will be. Simply dropping a prediction on Kalshi could be profitable if you know you won’t be wrong.

So, guidelines have been installed for employees, but it’s hard to police. There’s a tip line for employees to report people they suspect might be making predictions. That’s not all.

Hollywood adds guidelines to prohibit insider trading with prediction markets

Photo via ABC

The tip line to anonymously report suspected traders isn’t the only step Hollywood is taking. They’ve issued new warnings banning all employees from trading on news like studio earnings, casting announcements, or even release dates.

Additionally, the warnings also implore people not to engage with prediction markets, so in essence, all markets are banned for those working in and around Hollywood. Passing along information to others so they can make predictions is also banned. It is an extension of insider trading policies, but it’s one of the first examples of those rules being applied to prediction markets.

“You now have, essentially, an explosion in the number of employers who have to think about insider trading rules from an ethical standpoint,” says Joshua Mitts, a law professor, said via The Hollywood Reporter. “And totally apart from the question of criminal prosecution, is just the compliance problem — educating your employees on what’s allowed.”

There are a few examples already of people being caught using insider information to make predictions. A MrBeast editor made $5,000 on Kalshi by trading on MrBeast’s content. They were fired and earned a $20,000 fine. Back in April, a column revealed that someone working at CBS had traded successfully on a competition show.

With all that said, this isn’t a cut-and-dry issue. “With blockchain-based trading, it can be basically impossible [to catch a better] if you know how to use a mixer correctly and know how to hide your identity behind multiple layers of intermediation,” Mitts says. “So it’s quite hard for employers to suss it out through an open source investigation.”

So, Hollywood is attempting to prevent any insider predictions, but that is easier said than done.

Cover image via Britannica

Zachary Roberts

About Zachary Roberts

Zachary Roberts is an avid gamer and writer that loves to merge those things. He’s been featured on VideoGamer, ComicBook, New Leaf, Esports.net, and Sportskeeda as well as the On SI network of Sports Illustrated and Sporting News.

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