France vs Spain prediction markets and preview: can Les Bleus reach another World Cup final?

Ben Boland Published 13/07/2026

The 2026 World Cup in its extended format has provided one of the most memorable tournaments in living memory, but from 48 teams we are now down to the final four, and it is probably the four strongest teams remaining.

The semi-final lineup in the United States sees France vs Spain and England vs Argentina with all teams having a strong shout to win the iconic trophy. The first match takes place on Tuesday in the Dallas Stadium, and here we will preview what has the potential to be a match of the highest quality; we will also break down what the prediction markets expect to happen.

France vs Spain: tournament so far

France and Spain were among the pre-tournament favourites to win the 2026 World Cup, with the two European giants widely seen as having the strongest squads. France especially have a terrifying attack, with Didier Deschamps managing to fit Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue into the same side.

The concern when the tournament began was that the balance would not quite work and the formation would need to be tweaked, but that has not been the case; Les Bleus have racked up 16 goals in just six matches and they are unbeaten. Their group stage performances really set the standard and they comfortably topped Group I with maximum points.

The knockouts have seen them find ways to win against more defensive teams, with the 1-0 win over Paraguay in the last-16 showing that they have the grit. The quarter-final 2-0 win over Morocco — many people’s dark horses to win — reinforced that this is a team that is capable of going all the way. The only way that they can be stopped is by a watertight defence — and that is exactly what Spain has.

Attack vs defence

It was not until the 2-1 over Belgium in the last round that Spain had conceded a goal in this tournament, a remarkable feat considering the quality of the opposition they have faced. Luis de la Fuente’s men have been disciplined throughout, even if the 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in the group stage did show that they are not always as threatening in attack as they were during their Euro 2024 success.

Prediction markets expect a French win

Image credit: Kalshi

Prediction markets like the Kalshi app have become hugely popular during this tournament. They are distinct from gambling, with traders instead buying contracts to try and predict future events, but they are an excellent indicator of how likely something is to occur.

World Cup prediction markets have all manner of events for traders to speculate on. For the France vs Spain semi-final, Kalshi is currently showing that France are overwhelming favourites.

Traders think there is a 59% chance that the 2018 World Cup winners advance to the final; this is the most simple market to trade on as it covers the overall outcome, even if it takes extra-time or penalties to do so.

There are also interesting player props markets. Kylian Mbappe has been at his very best throughout the tournament, and this is displayed at Kalshi as he has a 23% chance at the time of writing to score the game’s first goal. Comparatively, Spain’s star forward Lamine Yamal is currently at 11% to do the same; the Barcelona attacker has not quite hit the same heights as Mbappe yet, but is a constant threat down the right-wing.

Player props markets. Image credit: Kalshi

Kalshi also has plenty of trades taking place on the method of victory. France has a 42% chance at the moment to win in normal time, whilst a penalty shootout victory is currently available to back at at 10%. This would be the most nervy outcome, though in the case it goes to penalties then it is clearly tricky to pick a winner.

There are tens of other markets to consider trading on at Kalshi, while Polymarket is another strong action for traders — our Polymarket review outlines everything to expect.

Editor’s view: my verdict

Despite being a proud England fan, I struggle to see past France to win the whole tournament. In fact, their strength in attack is the main reason that I can’t see any team stopping them. The prediction markets and World Cup betting odds lay this out clearly, and the simple truth is that if France show up on Tuesday in the semi-final then Spain will not be able to stop them.

That being said, Spain’s defensive discipline is such that their main hope is to keep the game goalless for as long as possible. As we saw in the previous rounds against Portugal and Morocco, the Iberians have enough quality to come off the bench and win the game late. Mikel Merino has been a super sub for his club Arsenal as well as Spain, so he would be one to watch if the game goes towards extra-time.

Overall, though, I really cannot see anything other than a French win in Dallas, and it will then be a question of whether they have to overcome England or Argentina to win the trophy for the third time.

Ben Boland

About Ben Boland

Ben is the Lead Editor at Win.gg, bringing a decade of iGaming industry experience having worked for both the operator and affiliation sides. With a formal journalism background, he is responsible for ensuring that every piece of content that we publish is relevant, accurate and well-written. In his own time, he enjoys playing video games and especially enjoys Rockstar titles, considering Red Dead Redemption 2 the finest title ever made. He has also spent a lot of time playing GTA V over the years and is fascinated by how streaming is changing the landscape of the industry.

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