How Will The Upcoming Clayface Movie Be Received?

Zachary Roberts Published 20/10/2026

Clayface is the latest film in the DCU, and it’s the second DC Comics movie exploring a villain’s origin story. Like Joker before it, this horror movie will primarily explore the titular villain without connecting it back to Batman. That is always a risk, as the Joker movies did fine, but the Venom movies on the Marvel side did not. But how will this one do?

How will Clayface do on Rotten Tomatoes?

Photo via Kalshi

We recently looked at how Digger would perform, and it is fair to say that reviews were very mixed. Clayface, according to Kalshi traders, is going to be Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, but it’s not likely to be impressively high. The current forecast is sitting at 76%, which would be good but not quite great once it releases on October 23.

About a week ago, Kalshi traders felt it was going to be much higher than that. The forecast then was in the 80s, but it has slowly dipped for unknown reasons. The early buzz from the premiere is positive, but not positive enough to skew the prediction market that way, it seems.

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Since August, that was the peak: 81.2%. The low, however, was just 73.5%. For months, Kalshi traders have been locked into that range, and it hasn’t moved much. 55% of traders believe it will hit the 75 mark. Just 36% believe it will surpass 80. 12% could see an 85 or better, with 4% believing it will score 90 or higher.

Exploring the likelihood

Clayface is directed by James Watkins, who has a handful of horror movies under his belt. These include Eden Lake (74%), the English-language remake Speak No Evil (83%), and The Woman in Black (66%). He also directed the Black Mirror episode Shut Up and Dance (67%).

Those average out to about 73%, which isn’t far from the prediction. It’s also a Mike Flanagan script, and his scripts usually do well:

Doctor Sleep: 79%
The Life of Chuck: 80%
Hush: 92%
Gerald’s Game: 91%
Oculus: 75%
Before I Wake: 67%
Ouija: Origin of Evil: 82%
Absentia: 87%
The Haunting of Hill House: 93%
Midnight Mass: 87%
The Haunting of Bly Manor: 88%
Midnight Club: 85%
Carrie: 85%
The Fall of the House of Usher: 91%

Those average out to 84%, which is higher than what Kalshi traders are predicting.

☑️ My View

Knowing what we know about Clayface, the Kalshi traders probably aren’t far off. James Watkins is a competent horror director, and he usually fares pretty well on Rotten Tomatoes.

Mike Flanagan is a more than competent horror writer, and he is usually aces on Rotten Tomatoes. There’s no reason to predict much lower than the 70s for Clayface, even if it’s a villain movie without the hero attached. It doesn’t help that Clayface is a lesser-known villain; he’s no Joker, after all.

Still, there is way too much talent behind the camera on this one for it to flop that badly, so Watkins and Flanagan’s expertise is more than enough to offset concerns about the subject. Plus, the early buzz is good, so in the mid-to-late 70s feels very appropriate and this is one of the more interesting prediction markets for traders.

Cover image via DC

Zachary Roberts

About Zachary Roberts

Zachary Roberts is an avid gamer and writer that loves to merge those things. He’s been featured on VideoGamer, ComicBook, New Leaf, Esports.net, and Sportskeeda as well as the On SI network of Sports Illustrated and Sporting News.

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